Aronian and So take lead into final round

The final round at the Superbet Chess Classic is upon us. Wesley So and Levon Aronian continue to be tied as we head into Round 9 where Aronian faces Mamedyarov with the white pieces, and So faces LDP with the black pieces. Aronian playing witth White and So with Black is enough to give a 17% advantage to Aronian in his chances of winning the tournament.

Below you can find the probabilities for every player to win the tournament as of the end of round 8. This page will be updated after every round. You can read about the methodology as well as the model I am using to make individual game predictions.

If Aronian and So head to a tiebreak, So has a 54.7% chance of winning given his slightly superior Rapid rating (2770 v 2751).

2022 Superbet Chess Classic Win Probabilities After Round 8

Name Win %
Aronian 56.4
So 39.5
Vachier-Lagrave 3.2
Dominguez Perez 0.5
Caruana 0.2
Firouzja 0.2
Deac 0.0

Firouzja was the slight favorite to before the tournament started, but Wesley So and Levon Aronian are the favorites after eight of nine rounds with MVL on their heels.

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