Nepo wins Candidates

With a draw in round 13, Ian Nepomniachtchi secured victory in the second straight Candidates Tournament officially earning himself a seat in the 2023 world championship match. Given Magnus comments, there is an outside chance that second place could matter. For his fate, Ding Liren awaits.

Below you’ll find round by round winning probabilities as the tournament progressed. It wasn’t long before Nepo was dominating the field and cruising on his way to his second straight Candidates Tournament victory.

GM Anish Giri has been posting recaps of each days games, which you can see below for Round 14:

The Field

Name Classic Rapid Blitz
Ding Liren 2806 2836 2788
Firouzja 2793 2670 2791
Caruana 2783 2766 2847
Nepomniachtchi 2766 2821 2740
Rapport 2764 2802 2613
Nakamura 2760 2837 2850
Duda 2750 2808 2779
Radjabov 2738 2747 2684

Why did I including Rapid and Blitz ratings in a Classical tournament that was played to determine who would go on to fight for the Classical chess world championship? Because there was a whopping 22% chance the event is decided in Rapid or Blitz tiebreaks! Of note, Firouzja’s Rapid rating is likely well below his skill level. If his true skill level is higher than his current rating, I understatimated his chances of winning by about 2%.

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A British guy emailed me and told me to include Pawnalyse in my website somewhere instead of Pawnalyze, so it shows up in search results. So here it is: Pawnalyse! Feels gross writing it that way, but I’ll be ok.