Firouzja and Nepo share lead

Nepo beat Aronian today with the black pieces, and Firouzja beat So with the white pieces, so both of them move into sole first place. Caruana is also on 4.5, but he has played all 8 games and will have a bye in Round 9. Meanwhile Nepo and Firouzja will both be fighting for the victory. Wesley So still has an outside chance of winning the event if He gains at least 0.5 points on Nepo or Firouzja, they wil go to a tiebreak, or he could win outright if he won and they both lost.

Firouzja has a 95% chance of winning the GCT, and will do so if he finishes with a tie for first place because he would win regardless of the TB result. He can also win if he gets second or third place and Nepo wins the event. If Wesley So wins the Sinquefield Cup outright tomorrow without a tiebreak, and Alireza finishes tied in second with Nepo, Firouzja and So would play a GCT tiebreak on Monday. There’s only about a 0.5% chance of tiebreaks occuring on Monday for the GCT title.

Tomorrow is the final round!

GCT Sinquefield Cup Predictions After Round 8

Name Win %
Nepomniachtchi 60.5
Firouzja 32.5
So 6.7
Caruana 0.3
Dominguez Perez 0.04

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