Candidates 2024 Halfway Complete, Rest Day Fun

How many points do I need to win?

Heading into the back half of the tournament, every player needs to ask themselves this question. Pawnalyze is here to help!

So far I’ve run over 500,000 simulations with results through Round 7, and we can inspect the simulations to figure out how likely each player is to win if they achieve a certain score.

Ok… now shut up and show us the data!

In order of most likely to win the event, to least:

How to read the graph: If Nepo scores 9 points, he wins just over 80% of the time. If he scores only 8.5 points he wins 50% of the time. It’s worth noting that some of the wins come from playing in tiebreaks, unfortunately, I didn’t split that out when making the graphs.

Prediction Updates

After every round, check out my simulations page for updated predictions. And, don’t worry about waiting until the end of the round! You can filter my simulations for the outcome of each game and get an instant updated predictions. You can even use my crystal ball to see the future. Pick the outcome of unplayed games to see the imapct on everyone’s winning chances.