Nakamura and Rapport Qualify

In a day of unexpected events, the candidate qualification spots are settled. Nakamura and Rapport punch their tickets to the 2022 Candidate’s Tournament. Many players leave today disappointed as their journey to the Candidate’s is over until the next World Championship cycle.

Nakamura has jumped all the way to World #11 in the live ratings on 2700 Chess. It appears Ding Liren is planning to complete the requisite games to earn the Candidate’s rating spot, and has earned a few rating points so far separating himself from the others.

I hope to publish Candidate Tournament odds sometime this week!

Those left to in Berlin have rating, money, and prestige to fight for. You can find the probabilities of each outcome below.

Odds to Win Leg 3

Name Win % Expected GP Points
Wesley So 40.6 10.2
Hikaru Nakamura 35.7 9.9
Shakhriyar Mamedyarov 19.5 8.4
Sam Shankland 2.6 4.8
Amin Tabatabaei 1.2 7.4
Vincent Keymer 0.3 4.4

Leg 3 Pool Odds

Hikaru Nakamura is the winner of Pool A and will face the winner of Pool B in the semifinal knockout stage. Amin Tabatabaei won Pool D and will face the winner of Pool C.

Pool B

Name Win %
Shakhriyar Mamedyarov 90.1
Vincent Keymer 9.9

Pool C

Name Win %
Wesley So 86.3
Sam Shankland 13.7