A glimpse at tomorrow’s games

If you follow any major sports league, you are familiar with rooting for a team and hoping some seemingly unrelated result occurs so that your team can advance. For example, if you live in the US you were hoping El Salvador could beat Costa Rica today… well that didn’t happen. It’s a good thing the USMNT is beating Panama so thoroughly at the moment. What’s the cross section between footie and chess fans? I better get back on track!

My point was that you can use this page to see what results you should be rooting for in tomorrow’s games. With just one round left, we can clearly see the impact each game has on everyone’s chances to qualify for the Candidate’s tournament.

The full dataset is 250,000 simulations and when you pick a scenario you get a subset of the data. Each subset of simulations should be fairly credible.

Go ahead and press some buttons.

Scenario Picker:

White Wins Draw Black Wins
Andrey Esipenko Hikaru Nakamura
Anish Giri Amin Tabatabaei
Daniil Dubov Shakhriyar Mamedyarov
Grigoriy Oparin Levon Aronian
Sam Shankland Maxime Vachier-Lagrave
Vincent Keymer Leinier Dominguez
Wesley So Alexandr Predke
Yu Yangyi Nikita Vitiugov

Candidate Qualification Odds

White Wins: Andrey Esipenko vs. Hikaru Nakamura

Name Qualify Expected GP Points
Richard Rapport 100.0 20.0
Levon Aronian 50.4 19.3
Wesley So 14.1 12.8
Anish Giri 12.8 12.7
Leinier Dominguez 11.2 13.1
Hikaru Nakamura 10.7 16.4
Sam Shankland 0.8 8.5

Draw: Andrey Esipenko vs. Hikaru Nakamura

Name Qualify Expected GP Points
Richard Rapport 98.8 20.0
Hikaru Nakamura 40.4 18.8
Levon Aronian 29.9 17.3
Leinier Dominguez 13.0 13.9
Anish Giri 11.5 12.8
Wesley So 5.8 12.1
Sam Shankland 0.4 8.8
Maxime Vachier-Lagrave 0.3 8.6

Black Wins: Andrey Esipenko vs. Hikaru Nakamura

Name Qualify Expected GP Points
Richard Rapport 97.1 20.0
Hikaru Nakamura 85.7 22.2
Levon Aronian 5.9 14.5
Leinier Dominguez 5.7 13.4
Anish Giri 5.1 12.4
Wesley So 0.6 12.0
Sam Shankland 0.0 9.2

White Wins: Anish Giri vs. Amin Tabatabaei

Name Qualify Expected GP Points
Richard Rapport 97.6 20.0
Hikaru Nakamura 40.4 19.0
Levon Aronian 26.6 16.9
Anish Giri 17.9 15.4
Leinier Dominguez 11.0 13.7
Wesley So 6.0 11.9
Sam Shankland 0.4 9.0

Draw: Anish Giri vs. Amin Tabatabaei

Name Qualify Expected GP Points
Richard Rapport 99.7 20.0
Hikaru Nakamura 41.0 18.6
Levon Aronian 35.2 17.8
Leinier Dominguez 10.9 13.4
Wesley So 7.4 12.0
Anish Giri 4.9 11.2
Sam Shankland 0.5 8.8
Maxime Vachier-Lagrave 0.3 8.7

Black Wins: Anish Giri vs. Amin Tabatabaei

Name Qualify Expected GP Points
Richard Rapport 99.9 20.0
Hikaru Nakamura 49.1 19.2
Levon Aronian 31.4 17.0
Wesley So 10.5 14.4
Leinier Dominguez 9.0 13.1
Sam Shankland 0.1 8.0

White Wins: Daniil Dubov vs. Shakhriyar Mamedyarov

Name Qualify Expected GP Points
Richard Rapport 99.1 20.0
Hikaru Nakamura 39.7 19.2
Levon Aronian 27.4 17.2
Leinier Dominguez 17.6 15.4
Anish Giri 8.7 12.0
Wesley So 6.7 12.5
Sam Shankland 0.4 8.6
Maxime Vachier-Lagrave 0.4 8.6

Draw: Daniil Dubov vs. Shakhriyar Mamedyarov

Name Qualify Expected GP Points
Richard Rapport 98.4 20.0
Hikaru Nakamura 40.3 18.9
Levon Aronian 30.1 17.2
Anish Giri 12.0 13.2
Leinier Dominguez 11.6 13.8
Wesley So 7.2 12.2
Sam Shankland 0.3 8.8
Maxime Vachier-Lagrave 0.1 8.6

Black Wins: Daniil Dubov vs. Shakhriyar Mamedyarov

Name Qualify Expected GP Points
Richard Rapport 99.2 20.0
Hikaru Nakamura 45.8 18.7
Levon Aronian 33.6 17.4
Anish Giri 8.2 12.0
Wesley So 7.4 12.3
Leinier Dominguez 5.1 11.9
Sam Shankland 0.6 8.9

White Wins: Grigoriy Oparin vs. Levon Aronian

Name Qualify Expected GP Points
Richard Rapport 96.5 20.0
Hikaru Nakamura 86.0 22.4
Anish Giri 7.9 13.5
Leinier Dominguez 7.8 13.4
Wesley So 1.7 13.5
Sam Shankland 0.0 8.0

Draw: Grigoriy Oparin vs. Levon Aronian

Name Qualify Expected GP Points
Richard Rapport 98.2 20.0
Hikaru Nakamura 44.0 19.3
Levon Aronian 26.8 16.8
Anish Giri 12.3 13.8
Leinier Dominguez 11.0 13.9
Wesley So 7.2 12.5
Sam Shankland 0.4 8.7

Black Wins: Grigoriy Oparin vs. Levon Aronian

Name Qualify Expected GP Points
Richard Rapport 99.6 20.0
Levon Aronian 39.6 18.6
Hikaru Nakamura 31.6 17.8
Leinier Dominguez 11.0 13.2
Anish Giri 9.3 11.7
Wesley So 8.1 11.8
Sam Shankland 0.5 9.0
Maxime Vachier-Lagrave 0.3 8.6

White Wins: Sam Shankland vs. Maxime Vachier-Lagrave

Name Qualify Expected GP Points
Richard Rapport 97.8 20.0
Hikaru Nakamura 44.7 19.2
Levon Aronian 25.9 17.2
Anish Giri 15.5 14.0
Leinier Dominguez 12.0 14.0
Wesley So 3.0 10.4
Sam Shankland 1.1 10.4

Draw: Sam Shankland vs. Maxime Vachier-Lagrave

Name Qualify Expected GP Points
Richard Rapport 98.6 20.0
Hikaru Nakamura 47.5 19.3
Levon Aronian 27.5 16.7
Leinier Dominguez 10.2 13.4
Anish Giri 9.1 12.6
Wesley So 6.7 12.6
Sam Shankland 0.4 8.9

Black Wins: Sam Shankland vs. Maxime Vachier-Lagrave

Name Qualify Expected GP Points
Richard Rapport 99.8 20.0
Levon Aronian 41.5 18.5
Hikaru Nakamura 26.6 17.5
Wesley So 11.3 13.0
Leinier Dominguez 11.0 13.4
Anish Giri 9.4 11.9
Maxime Vachier-Lagrave 0.5 9.9
Sam Shankland 0.0 7.3

White Wins: Vincent Keymer vs. Leinier Domínguez

Name Qualify Expected GP Points
Richard Rapport 99.3 20.0
Hikaru Nakamura 50.4 18.9
Levon Aronian 32.4 17.8
Anish Giri 11.2 12.5
Wesley So 6.1 12.1
Sam Shankland 0.6 9.1

Draw: Vincent Keymer vs. Leinier Domínguez

Name Qualify Expected GP Points
Richard Rapport 98.6 20.0
Hikaru Nakamura 46.1 19.0
Levon Aronian 30.2 17.0
Anish Giri 9.0 12.6
Wesley So 8.5 12.5
Leinier Dominguez 7.4 13.2
Sam Shankland 0.2 8.7

Black Wins: Vincent Keymer vs. Leinier Domínguez

Name Qualify Expected GP Points
Richard Rapport 98.8 20.0
Hikaru Nakamura 34.0 18.7
Levon Aronian 30.7 17.4
Leinier Dominguez 17.9 15.3
Anish Giri 11.8 12.8
Wesley So 5.9 12.1
Sam Shankland 0.6 8.8
Maxime Vachier-Lagrave 0.3 8.5

White Wins: Wesley So vs. Alexandr Predke

Name Qualify Expected GP Points
Richard Rapport 98.4 20.0
Hikaru Nakamura 48.5 19.5
Levon Aronian 24.8 16.5
Leinier Dominguez 10.4 13.6
Anish Giri 9.2 12.7
Wesley So 8.6 13.7
Sam Shankland 0.0 7.9

Draw: Wesley So vs. Alexandr Predke

Name Qualify Expected GP Points
Richard Rapport 99.6 20.0
Levon Aronian 38.3 18.1
Hikaru Nakamura 32.9 18.1
Anish Giri 10.7 12.3
Leinier Dominguez 10.0 13.2
Wesley So 8.0 12.4
Sam Shankland 0.7 9.0

Black Wins: Wesley So vs. Alexandr Predke

Name Qualify Expected GP Points
Richard Rapport 97.9 20.0
Hikaru Nakamura 40.2 18.6
Levon Aronian 32.2 17.8
Anish Giri 14.0 13.7
Leinier Dominguez 13.6 13.9
Sam Shankland 1.1 11.5
Maxime Vachier-Lagrave 0.9 7.5
Wesley So 0.0 6.8

White Wins: Yu Yangyi vs. Nikita Vitiugov

Name Qualify Expected GP Points
Richard Rapport 99.3 20.0
Hikaru Nakamura 42.6 18.6
Levon Aronian 35.5 17.6
Leinier Dominguez 9.7 13.3
Wesley So 7.0 11.9
Anish Giri 5.1 11.2
Sam Shankland 0.4 8.9
Maxime Vachier-Lagrave 0.2 8.6

Draw: Yu Yangyi vs. Nikita Vitiugov

Name Qualify Expected GP Points
Richard Rapport 98.6 20.0
Hikaru Nakamura 40.8 18.9
Levon Aronian 28.3 17.2
Anish Giri 13.9 13.5
Leinier Dominguez 10.4 13.3
Wesley So 7.5 12.4
Sam Shankland 0.3 8.7
Maxime Vachier-Lagrave 0.1 8.6

Black Wins: Yu Yangyi vs. Nikita Vitiugov

Name Qualify Expected GP Points
Richard Rapport 98.4 20.0
Hikaru Nakamura 42.6 19.0
Levon Aronian 29.8 17.0
Leinier Dominguez 12.7 14.2
Anish Giri 9.5 12.8
Wesley So 6.5 12.5
Sam Shankland 0.6 8.8