We can see the future

At least, we can try. I just finished watching The Adam Project on Netflix and I sure hope I don’t create any time warps by publishing these what-if scenarios. I’m willing to take the risk.

You can explore how the results of rounds 5 and 6 impact everyone’s odds for qualifying to the Candidate’s tournament. I am skipping over Pool odds, chances to win this individual tournament, and my ‘fancy’ graphs. Let’s keep it to what we all really care about in this post… who is going to qualify?

The full dataset is 100,000 simulations and when you pick a scenario you get a subset of the data. The subsets are likely to be a bit volatile, but should give you an idea of the impact of various games. For example, if Aronian loses to Espienko he can’t qualify for the Candidate’s!

Go ahead and press some buttons.

Scenario Picker:

White Wins Draw Black Wins
Alexandr Predke Sam Shankland
Amin Tabatabaei Yu Yangyi
Andrey Esipenko Hikaru Nakamura
Anish Giri Amin Tabatabaei
Daniil Dubov Vincent Keymer
Daniil Dubov Shakhriyar Mamedyarov
Grigoriy Oparin Levon Aronian
Hikaru Nakamura Grigoriy Oparin
Leinier Dominguez Shakhriyar Mamedyarov
Levon Aronian Andrey Esipenko
Maxime Vachier-Lagrave Wesley So
Nikita Vitiugov Anish Giri
Sam Shankland Maxime Vachier-Lagrave
Vincent Keymer Leinier Dominguez
Wesley So Alexandr Predke
Yu Yangyi Nikita Vitiugov

Candidate Qualification Odds

White Wins: Alexandr Predke vs. Sam Shankland

Name Qualify Expected GP Points
Richard Rapport 99.0 20.0
Levon Aronian 28.2 15.5
Hikaru Nakamura 26.5 17.9
Leinier Dominguez 19.0 15.2
Anish Giri 14.9 13.3
Wesley So 7.9 10.5
Maxime Vachier-Lagrave 4.1 9.9
Shakhriyar Mamedyarov 0.2 7.2
Sam Shankland 0.1 5.3
Nikita Vitiugov 0.1 5.7
Alexandr Predke 0.0 7.6

Draw: Alexandr Predke vs. Sam Shankland

Name Qualify Expected GP Points
Richard Rapport 98.8 20.0
Hikaru Nakamura 36.2 18.2
Levon Aronian 17.9 15.5
Leinier Dominguez 15.7 13.8
Maxime Vachier-Lagrave 9.6 11.5
Anish Giri 9.4 11.8
Wesley So 9.0 9.4
Shakhriyar Mamedyarov 2.1 8.6
Sam Shankland 0.6 7.5
Nikita Vitiugov 0.5 6.5
Andrey Esipenko 0.2 4.7
Alexandr Predke 0.2 5.2

Black Wins: Alexandr Predke vs. Sam Shankland

Name Qualify Expected GP Points
Richard Rapport 99.0 20.0
Hikaru Nakamura 42.2 18.0
Anish Giri 17.8 13.2
Wesley So 11.8 10.2
Leinier Dominguez 7.9 12.3
Maxime Vachier-Lagrave 7.3 11.4
Shakhriyar Mamedyarov 6.4 10.8
Levon Aronian 4.5 13.8
Sam Shankland 1.8 8.8
Nikita Vitiugov 1.3 6.2

White Wins: Amin Tabatabaei vs. Yu Yangyi

Name Qualify Expected GP Points
Richard Rapport 97.5 20.0
Hikaru Nakamura 48.9 19.1
Anish Giri 14.1 13.9
Leinier Dominguez 11.2 13.1
Wesley So 11.0 10.0
Levon Aronian 6.9 13.3
Shakhriyar Mamedyarov 4.6 9.8
Maxime Vachier-Lagrave 2.7 9.7
Nikita Vitiugov 1.6 7.0
Sam Shankland 0.8 8.1
Alexandr Predke 0.5 5.6

Draw: Amin Tabatabaei vs. Yu Yangyi

Name Qualify Expected GP Points
Richard Rapport 98.7 20.0
Hikaru Nakamura 32.5 18.0
Levon Aronian 16.2 15.3
Leinier Dominguez 16.1 14.2
Anish Giri 14.1 12.7
Wesley So 9.7 9.4
Maxime Vachier-Lagrave 9.1 11.7
Shakhriyar Mamedyarov 2.0 8.4
Sam Shankland 0.8 7.2
Nikita Vitiugov 0.4 6.1
Andrey Esipenko 0.3 4.7
Alexandr Predke 0.1 5.3

Black Wins: Amin Tabatabaei vs. Yu Yangyi

Name Qualify Expected GP Points
Richard Rapport 99.9 20.0
Hikaru Nakamura 30.9 17.7
Levon Aronian 30.0 16.2
Leinier Dominguez 17.0 14.0
Maxime Vachier-Lagrave 8.8 10.8
Wesley So 6.7 10.2
Anish Giri 5.5 10.8
Shakhriyar Mamedyarov 1.0 8.1
Sam Shankland 0.1 6.6
Alexandr Predke 0.1 5.8
Nikita Vitiugov 0.0 6.2

White Wins: Andrey Esipenko vs. Hikaru Nakamura

Name Qualify Expected GP Points
Richard Rapport 100.0 20.0
Levon Aronian 41.0 17.6
Leinier Dominguez 18.1 14.2
Wesley So 16.8 11.5
Maxime Vachier-Lagrave 7.9 10.3
Anish Giri 7.4 10.7
Hikaru Nakamura 5.0 15.1
Shakhriyar Mamedyarov 2.8 8.8
Andrey Esipenko 0.6 5.9
Sam Shankland 0.2 6.6
Nikita Vitiugov 0.1 5.9

Draw: Andrey Esipenko vs. Hikaru Nakamura

Name Qualify Expected GP Points
Richard Rapport 99.1 20.0
Hikaru Nakamura 32.6 18.1
Levon Aronian 16.6 15.3
Leinier Dominguez 15.3 13.7
Anish Giri 15.2 13.1
Maxime Vachier-Lagrave 9.5 11.6
Wesley So 6.8 8.9
Shakhriyar Mamedyarov 2.8 8.7
Sam Shankland 1.0 7.3
Nikita Vitiugov 0.8 6.4
Alexandr Predke 0.3 5.6

Black Wins: Andrey Esipenko vs. Hikaru Nakamura

Name Qualify Expected GP Points
Richard Rapport 97.6 20.0
Hikaru Nakamura 66.3 21.0
Leinier Dominguez 13.8 14.4
Anish Giri 8.1 12.2
Wesley So 6.3 9.7
Maxime Vachier-Lagrave 5.0 10.9
Levon Aronian 2.5 13.1
Shakhriyar Mamedyarov 0.2 8.0
Sam Shankland 0.2 7.4
Nikita Vitiugov 0.1 6.3

White Wins: Anish Giri vs. Amin Tabatabaei

Name Qualify Expected GP Points
Richard Rapport 98.6 20.0
Hikaru Nakamura 29.6 17.8
Levon Aronian 17.6 15.0
Anish Giri 16.9 13.7
Leinier Dominguez 16.2 14.1
Wesley So 11.0 10.1
Maxime Vachier-Lagrave 6.5 10.5
Shakhriyar Mamedyarov 2.3 8.4
Sam Shankland 0.7 7.4
Nikita Vitiugov 0.5 6.6
Alexandr Predke 0.2 5.5

Draw: Anish Giri vs. Amin Tabatabaei

Name Qualify Expected GP Points
Richard Rapport 99.1 20.0
Hikaru Nakamura 40.0 18.4
Levon Aronian 24.9 15.9
Leinier Dominguez 13.9 13.6
Maxime Vachier-Lagrave 8.3 11.8
Anish Giri 6.0 11.6
Wesley So 5.1 9.4
Shakhriyar Mamedyarov 1.4 9.0
Sam Shankland 0.7 6.8
Nikita Vitiugov 0.5 5.4
Alexandr Predke 0.1 5.4

Black Wins: Anish Giri vs. Amin Tabatabaei

Name Qualify Expected GP Points
Richard Rapport 99.9 20.0
Hikaru Nakamura 44.7 18.8
Leinier Dominguez 16.9 14.3
Maxime Vachier-Lagrave 14.5 12.2
Levon Aronian 10.0 14.8
Wesley So 9.6 8.9
Shakhriyar Mamedyarov 3.0 7.9
Andrey Esipenko 1.2 5.5
Nikita Vitiugov 0.2 6.6

White Wins: Daniil Dubov vs. Vincent Keymer

Name Qualify Expected GP Points
Richard Rapport 99.4 20.0
Hikaru Nakamura 29.7 17.8
Levon Aronian 26.4 16.1
Leinier Dominguez 14.5 13.9
Anish Giri 11.3 12.1
Maxime Vachier-Lagrave 9.3 11.7
Wesley So 8.1 9.0
Shakhriyar Mamedyarov 0.9 8.9
Sam Shankland 0.3 7.4
Nikita Vitiugov 0.1 6.3
Alexandr Predke 0.0 5.4

Draw: Daniil Dubov vs. Vincent Keymer

Name Qualify Expected GP Points
Richard Rapport 98.4 20.0
Hikaru Nakamura 39.3 18.4
Leinier Dominguez 15.4 14.2
Levon Aronian 12.8 14.5
Anish Giri 12.7 12.9
Wesley So 8.9 10.1
Maxime Vachier-Lagrave 7.1 10.4
Shakhriyar Mamedyarov 3.6 8.4
Nikita Vitiugov 1.0 6.1
Sam Shankland 0.7 7.1
Alexandr Predke 0.2 5.8

Black Wins: Daniil Dubov vs. Vincent Keymer

Name Qualify Expected GP Points
Richard Rapport 98.8 20.0
Hikaru Nakamura 36.5 18.1
Leinier Dominguez 19.8 13.7
Wesley So 12.5 10.8
Levon Aronian 11.8 14.8
Anish Giri 9.3 11.4
Maxime Vachier-Lagrave 6.5 11.6
Shakhriyar Mamedyarov 1.9 7.7
Sam Shankland 1.2 6.5
Andrey Esipenko 1.1 5.0
Alexandr Predke 0.3 4.9
Nikita Vitiugov 0.2 6.6

White Wins: Daniil Dubov vs. Shakhriyar Mamedyarov

Name Qualify Expected GP Points
Richard Rapport 98.4 20.0
Hikaru Nakamura 36.8 18.9
Levon Aronian 23.2 15.9
Leinier Dominguez 20.4 15.5
Anish Giri 7.9 11.7
Maxime Vachier-Lagrave 7.4 11.3
Wesley So 5.7 10.2
Sam Shankland 0.1 6.1
Alexandr Predke 0.1 6.0

Draw: Daniil Dubov vs. Shakhriyar Mamedyarov

Name Qualify Expected GP Points
Richard Rapport 99.2 20.0
Hikaru Nakamura 33.8 17.9
Levon Aronian 17.8 15.3
Leinier Dominguez 17.4 14.1
Anish Giri 10.7 12.2
Wesley So 9.2 9.8
Maxime Vachier-Lagrave 7.7 10.8
Shakhriyar Mamedyarov 2.5 8.5
Sam Shankland 0.8 7.4
Nikita Vitiugov 0.7 6.0
Alexandr Predke 0.2 5.5

Black Wins: Daniil Dubov vs. Shakhriyar Mamedyarov

Name Qualify Expected GP Points
Richard Rapport 98.5 20.0
Hikaru Nakamura 35.0 18.0
Anish Giri 18.1 13.2
Levon Aronian 17.8 14.5
Wesley So 11.9 9.1
Maxime Vachier-Lagrave 9.8 12.0
Leinier Dominguez 4.6 12.0
Shakhriyar Mamedyarov 2.9 11.5
Andrey Esipenko 0.8 5.4
Sam Shankland 0.3 7.5
Nikita Vitiugov 0.2 7.4
Alexandr Predke 0.0 5.0

White Wins: Grigoriy Oparin vs. Levon Aronian

Name Qualify Expected GP Points
Richard Rapport 99.9 20.0
Hikaru Nakamura 52.9 18.0
Wesley So 23.6 12.8
Anish Giri 10.9 12.1
Leinier Dominguez 9.8 12.8
Sam Shankland 2.2 8.6
Shakhriyar Mamedyarov 0.6 10.9
Nikita Vitiugov 0.2 6.9

Draw: Grigoriy Oparin vs. Levon Aronian

Name Qualify Expected GP Points
Richard Rapport 98.6 20.0
Hikaru Nakamura 39.6 18.5
Leinier Dominguez 17.6 14.1
Anish Giri 12.2 12.4
Levon Aronian 11.3 14.2
Wesley So 8.3 9.4
Maxime Vachier-Lagrave 7.6 11.3
Shakhriyar Mamedyarov 3.2 8.3
Nikita Vitiugov 0.7 6.2
Sam Shankland 0.6 7.2
Alexandr Predke 0.2 5.7

Black Wins: Grigoriy Oparin vs. Levon Aronian

Name Qualify Expected GP Points
Richard Rapport 99.2 20.0
Levon Aronian 35.8 17.9
Hikaru Nakamura 21.9 17.5
Leinier Dominguez 13.5 14.1
Anish Giri 10.7 12.3
Maxime Vachier-Lagrave 10.6 11.5
Wesley So 7.1 9.6
Shakhriyar Mamedyarov 0.7 8.4
Andrey Esipenko 0.4 5.0
Sam Shankland 0.2 6.8
Nikita Vitiugov 0.1 6.3

White Wins: Hikaru Nakamura vs. Grigoriy Oparin

Name Qualify Expected GP Points
Richard Rapport 98.1 20.0
Hikaru Nakamura 53.0 20.2
Levon Aronian 19.1 15.7
Leinier Dominguez 13.6 14.4
Anish Giri 6.4 11.8
Wesley So 5.0 10.3
Maxime Vachier-Lagrave 3.8 10.7
Shakhriyar Mamedyarov 0.5 7.6
Andrey Esipenko 0.3 4.6
Sam Shankland 0.1 7.2
Nikita Vitiugov 0.1 6.0

Draw: Hikaru Nakamura vs. Grigoriy Oparin

Name Qualify Expected GP Points
Richard Rapport 99.5 20.0
Levon Aronian 24.3 15.6
Hikaru Nakamura 21.0 16.7
Leinier Dominguez 17.6 13.8
Anish Giri 16.7 12.9
Wesley So 9.5 8.8
Maxime Vachier-Lagrave 9.4 11.3
Sam Shankland 1.1 7.5
Shakhriyar Mamedyarov 0.9 9.2
Alexandr Predke 0.1 5.8
Nikita Vitiugov 0.0 6.1

Black Wins: Hikaru Nakamura vs. Grigoriy Oparin

Name Qualify Expected GP Points
Richard Rapport 100.0 20.0
Wesley So 22.7 10.6
Maxime Vachier-Lagrave 19.7 12.1
Leinier Dominguez 16.3 13.0
Anish Giri 14.4 12.4
Shakhriyar Mamedyarov 12.3 10.0
Hikaru Nakamura 9.6 14.9
Nikita Vitiugov 3.3 7.6
Sam Shankland 1.0 6.0
Alexandr Predke 0.6 5.3

White Wins: Leinier Domínguez vs. Shakhriyar Mamedyarov

Name Qualify Expected GP Points
Richard Rapport 98.0 20.0
Hikaru Nakamura 31.0 18.5
Leinier Dominguez 26.0 16.2
Levon Aronian 19.2 15.8
Anish Giri 13.3 13.2
Maxime Vachier-Lagrave 7.5 11.5
Wesley So 4.1 9.2
Sam Shankland 0.6 6.3
Alexandr Predke 0.2 6.3

Draw: Leinier Domínguez vs. Shakhriyar Mamedyarov

Name Qualify Expected GP Points
Richard Rapport 99.3 20.0
Hikaru Nakamura 33.0 17.8
Levon Aronian 15.5 14.9
Leinier Dominguez 13.7 13.6
Wesley So 13.6 10.3
Anish Giri 11.7 12.1
Maxime Vachier-Lagrave 7.7 11.0
Shakhriyar Mamedyarov 3.7 9.3
Nikita Vitiugov 0.9 6.7
Sam Shankland 0.4 7.2
Andrey Esipenko 0.3 4.9
Alexandr Predke 0.2 5.2

Black Wins: Leinier Domínguez vs. Shakhriyar Mamedyarov

Name Qualify Expected GP Points
Richard Rapport 99.2 20.0
Hikaru Nakamura 46.9 18.3
Levon Aronian 29.4 15.4
Maxime Vachier-Lagrave 10.2 10.9
Anish Giri 7.6 11.5
Wesley So 3.4 8.7
Sam Shankland 1.2 8.6
Leinier Dominguez 1.1 10.7
Shakhriyar Mamedyarov 0.9 12.1

White Wins: Levon Aronian vs. Andrey Esipenko

Name Qualify Expected GP Points
Richard Rapport 98.9 20.0
Levon Aronian 29.5 16.9
Hikaru Nakamura 22.9 17.4
Leinier Dominguez 16.4 14.4
Anish Giri 11.5 12.5
Wesley So 10.1 10.0
Maxime Vachier-Lagrave 6.4 10.7
Shakhriyar Mamedyarov 2.8 8.1
Nikita Vitiugov 0.9 5.9
Sam Shankland 0.5 7.2
Alexandr Predke 0.2 5.5

Draw: Levon Aronian vs. Andrey Esipenko

Name Qualify Expected GP Points
Richard Rapport 99.3 20.0
Hikaru Nakamura 45.4 18.8
Leinier Dominguez 16.2 13.7
Levon Aronian 13.0 14.6
Anish Giri 9.9 11.7
Maxime Vachier-Lagrave 7.7 11.2
Wesley So 6.6 9.2
Shakhriyar Mamedyarov 1.0 8.8
Sam Shankland 0.9 7.4
Alexandr Predke 0.1 5.6
Nikita Vitiugov 0.0 6.7

Black Wins: Levon Aronian vs. Andrey Esipenko

Name Qualify Expected GP Points
Richard Rapport 97.7 20.0
Hikaru Nakamura 40.3 18.1
Anish Giri 17.8 13.7
Maxime Vachier-Lagrave 15.1 12.2
Wesley So 13.6 10.3
Leinier Dominguez 10.7 13.5
Shakhriyar Mamedyarov 3.3 9.3
Andrey Esipenko 1.2 6.9
Nikita Vitiugov 0.3 6.0
Alexandr Predke 0.0 5.2

White Wins: Maxime Vachier-Lagrave vs. Wesley So

Name Qualify Expected GP Points
Richard Rapport 97.6 20.0
Hikaru Nakamura 33.1 18.5
Maxime Vachier-Lagrave 23.9 15.2
Leinier Dominguez 15.4 14.1
Anish Giri 14.9 12.8
Levon Aronian 13.0 15.0
Shakhriyar Mamedyarov 1.3 8.7
Sam Shankland 0.7 7.3
Wesley So 0.1 5.9
Nikita Vitiugov 0.1 6.5
Alexandr Predke 0.0 5.1

Draw: Maxime Vachier-Lagrave vs. Wesley So

Name Qualify Expected GP Points
Richard Rapport 99.5 20.0
Hikaru Nakamura 35.5 18.0
Levon Aronian 21.6 15.6
Leinier Dominguez 14.9 13.6
Anish Giri 10.4 11.9
Wesley So 9.5 10.2
Shakhriyar Mamedyarov 3.3 8.7
Maxime Vachier-Lagrave 3.2 10.2
Nikita Vitiugov 0.8 6.3
Sam Shankland 0.7 7.4
Andrey Esipenko 0.3 4.7
Alexandr Predke 0.2 5.6

Black Wins: Maxime Vachier-Lagrave vs. Wesley So

Name Qualify Expected GP Points
Richard Rapport 99.0 20.0
Hikaru Nakamura 34.0 17.7
Wesley So 19.5 13.3
Levon Aronian 19.3 14.7
Leinier Dominguez 17.6 14.7
Anish Giri 10.2 12.7
Shakhriyar Mamedyarov 0.2 8.0
Sam Shankland 0.1 6.5
Nikita Vitiugov 0.0 6.0

White Wins: Nikita Vitiugov vs. Anish Giri

Name Qualify Expected GP Points
Richard Rapport 100.0 20.0
Hikaru Nakamura 28.3 17.5
Levon Aronian 24.1 15.8
Leinier Dominguez 16.8 13.8
Wesley So 15.8 10.4
Maxime Vachier-Lagrave 8.9 10.8
Shakhriyar Mamedyarov 3.8 8.6
Nikita Vitiugov 1.3 9.8
Sam Shankland 0.7 7.6
Alexandr Predke 0.4 5.3

Draw: Nikita Vitiugov vs. Anish Giri

Name Qualify Expected GP Points
Richard Rapport 98.9 20.0
Hikaru Nakamura 40.1 18.5
Levon Aronian 16.4 14.8
Leinier Dominguez 15.3 13.8
Anish Giri 11.1 12.3
Maxime Vachier-Lagrave 9.0 11.5
Wesley So 6.3 9.2
Shakhriyar Mamedyarov 1.7 8.6
Sam Shankland 0.5 6.9
Nikita Vitiugov 0.3 5.7
Andrey Esipenko 0.2 4.7
Alexandr Predke 0.1 5.9

Black Wins: Nikita Vitiugov vs. Anish Giri

Name Qualify Expected GP Points
Richard Rapport 97.8 20.0
Anish Giri 25.7 15.6
Hikaru Nakamura 23.5 17.3
Levon Aronian 20.9 16.2
Leinier Dominguez 15.3 14.7
Wesley So 10.6 10.7
Maxime Vachier-Lagrave 3.9 10.4
Shakhriyar Mamedyarov 1.7 8.2
Sam Shankland 0.6 7.5

White Wins: Sam Shankland vs. Maxime Vachier-Lagrave

Name Qualify Expected GP Points
Richard Rapport 98.3 20.0
Hikaru Nakamura 36.6 18.2
Levon Aronian 26.9 15.5
Anish Giri 16.8 13.7
Leinier Dominguez 12.0 13.6
Wesley So 7.2 9.2
Sam Shankland 1.7 9.6
Shakhriyar Mamedyarov 0.1 9.4
Maxime Vachier-Lagrave 0.1 8.1

Draw: Sam Shankland vs. Maxime Vachier-Lagrave

Name Qualify Expected GP Points
Richard Rapport 99.7 20.0
Hikaru Nakamura 30.8 17.8
Levon Aronian 18.5 15.4
Leinier Dominguez 17.5 13.9
Wesley So 11.5 9.9
Anish Giri 9.3 11.3
Maxime Vachier-Lagrave 7.8 11.0
Shakhriyar Mamedyarov 3.2 8.4
Nikita Vitiugov 0.7 7.0
Andrey Esipenko 0.3 4.9
Sam Shankland 0.3 7.2
Alexandr Predke 0.3 5.6

Black Wins: Sam Shankland vs. Maxime Vachier-Lagrave

Name Qualify Expected GP Points
Richard Rapport 98.2 20.0
Hikaru Nakamura 38.6 18.5
Leinier Dominguez 15.9 14.4
Maxime Vachier-Lagrave 15.9 14.2
Levon Aronian 11.6 14.9
Anish Giri 10.4 12.6
Wesley So 6.7 9.9
Shakhriyar Mamedyarov 2.2 7.9
Nikita Vitiugov 0.5 5.8

White Wins: Vincent Keymer vs. Leinier Domínguez

Name Qualify Expected GP Points
Richard Rapport 99.9 20.0
Hikaru Nakamura 34.4 17.8
Levon Aronian 16.8 15.2
Leinier Dominguez 13.2 12.5
Maxime Vachier-Lagrave 10.6 10.8
Shakhriyar Mamedyarov 9.2 7.8
Anish Giri 5.7 10.3
Wesley So 3.9 8.0
Nikita Vitiugov 3.1 7.7
Sam Shankland 2.2 8.2
Alexandr Predke 0.7 6.4

Draw: Vincent Keymer vs. Leinier Domínguez

Name Qualify Expected GP Points
Richard Rapport 98.9 20.0
Hikaru Nakamura 35.7 18.1
Levon Aronian 16.0 14.8
Leinier Dominguez 14.3 13.8
Anish Giri 14.1 12.8
Wesley So 10.1 9.7
Maxime Vachier-Lagrave 8.6 11.4
Shakhriyar Mamedyarov 1.5 8.9
Sam Shankland 0.4 6.9
Andrey Esipenko 0.2 4.9
Nikita Vitiugov 0.1 6.0
Alexandr Predke 0.1 5.5

Black Wins: Vincent Keymer vs. Leinier Domínguez

Name Qualify Expected GP Points
Richard Rapport 98.4 20.0
Hikaru Nakamura 31.6 18.2
Levon Aronian 27.6 16.5
Leinier Dominguez 20.3 15.2
Wesley So 8.9 10.6
Anish Giri 7.9 12.1
Maxime Vachier-Lagrave 5.0 10.5
Sam Shankland 0.2 7.4
Nikita Vitiugov 0.0 6.0

White Wins: Wesley So vs. Alexandr Predke

Name Qualify Expected GP Points
Richard Rapport 98.4 20.0
Hikaru Nakamura 35.4 18.1
Levon Aronian 16.5 15.0
Leinier Dominguez 15.1 14.0
Wesley So 13.3 11.8
Anish Giri 11.8 12.8
Maxime Vachier-Lagrave 6.7 11.2
Shakhriyar Mamedyarov 1.9 8.5
Sam Shankland 0.4 6.7
Nikita Vitiugov 0.3 5.9
Andrey Esipenko 0.2 4.9

Draw: Wesley So vs. Alexandr Predke

Name Qualify Expected GP Points
Richard Rapport 99.6 20.0
Hikaru Nakamura 40.3 18.8
Levon Aronian 19.8 15.5
Leinier Dominguez 12.0 13.7
Anish Giri 10.9 11.5
Maxime Vachier-Lagrave 9.4 11.2
Wesley So 3.1 6.9
Shakhriyar Mamedyarov 2.6 8.9
Sam Shankland 1.1 8.1
Nikita Vitiugov 0.9 7.2
Alexandr Predke 0.3 7.0

Black Wins: Wesley So vs. Alexandr Predke

Name Qualify Expected GP Points
Richard Rapport 100.0 20.0
Leinier Dominguez 34.0 15.1
Levon Aronian 33.3 16.6
Maxime Vachier-Lagrave 12.6 10.4
Anish Giri 12.1 11.9
Hikaru Nakamura 5.4 15.2
Shakhriyar Mamedyarov 1.9 7.1
Alexandr Predke 0.7 10.2

White Wins: Yu Yangyi vs. Nikita Vitiugov

Name Qualify Expected GP Points
Richard Rapport 98.5 20.0
Hikaru Nakamura 42.9 18.8
Levon Aronian 25.7 15.7
Leinier Dominguez 16.6 14.3
Anish Giri 8.4 12.4
Wesley So 5.6 9.8
Maxime Vachier-Lagrave 1.8 9.8
Sam Shankland 0.4 7.6
Alexandr Predke 0.2 6.0

Draw: Yu Yangyi vs. Nikita Vitiugov

Name Qualify Expected GP Points
Richard Rapport 99.1 20.0
Hikaru Nakamura 31.9 17.9
Leinier Dominguez 17.2 14.2
Levon Aronian 16.8 15.1
Anish Giri 12.0 12.1
Wesley So 9.7 9.7
Maxime Vachier-Lagrave 9.7 11.5
Shakhriyar Mamedyarov 2.3 8.2
Sam Shankland 0.8 6.9
Nikita Vitiugov 0.4 6.7
Alexandr Predke 0.1 5.6

Black Wins: Yu Yangyi vs. Nikita Vitiugov

Name Qualify Expected GP Points
Richard Rapport 98.8 20.0
Hikaru Nakamura 32.6 17.7
Levon Aronian 16.3 15.2
Anish Giri 15.0 12.9
Wesley So 11.9 9.7
Maxime Vachier-Lagrave 11.2 11.7
Leinier Dominguez 6.9 12.6
Shakhriyar Mamedyarov 5.0 10.2
Nikita Vitiugov 1.3 8.6
Andrey Esipenko 1.1 5.6
Alexandr Predke 0.0 4.4
Sam Shankland 0.0 7.6