FIDE Grand Prix Berlin Odds After Round 4
Decisive day shakes things up
We saw five wins with white pieces today, and only three draws. That’s a big change from the last two days where we saw one decisive game out of the last 16! The results of today sure shook things up. A favorite to win it all after yesterday was Aronian, but he fell to Hikaru today greatly dropping his chances of winning and qualifying. Now, there is no clear favorite to win, with six players all above a 10% chance.
Grigory Oparin is the biggest surprise up a half point in his pool with just two games left. He is the favorite to take down Pool A. He faces two tough remaining games, though, and on Sunday he will face Nakamura with the black pieces, and on Monday Aronian with the white pieces.
Check out the odds for everything below, and we will see you here on Sunday for another update after Round 5.
Odds to Win Leg 3
| Name | Win % | Expected GP Points |
|---|---|---|
| Leinier Dominguez | 16.9 | 6.8 |
| Shakhriyar Mamedyarov | 14.4 | 6.1 |
| Anish Giri | 12.9 | 5.4 |
| Wesley So | 11.6 | 4.6 |
| Maxime Vachier-Lagrave | 11.5 | 4.8 |
| Hikaru Nakamura | 10.3 | 4.2 |
| Levon Aronian | 7.3 | 4.5 |
| Yu Yangyi | 5.7 | 4.1 |
| Grigoriy Oparin | 2.9 | 4.9 |
| Nikita Vitiugov | 2.5 | 3.6 |
| Alexandr Predke | 1.7 | 2.9 |
| Sam Shankland | 1.5 | 3.1 |
| Andrey Esipenko | 0.7 | 1.3 |
| Amin Tabatabaei | 0.1 | 2.0 |
| Vincent Keymer | 0.1 | 2.2 |
| Daniil Dubov | 0.0 | 0.6 |
Leg 3 Pool Odds
Pool A
| Name | Win % | Expected Pool Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Grigoriy Oparin | 40.1 | 1.8 |
| Hikaru Nakamura | 27.7 | 2.2 |
| Levon Aronian | 26.1 | 2.0 |
| Andrey Esipenko | 6.1 | 3.3 |
Pool B
| Name | Win % | Expected Pool Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Leinier Dominguez | 56.6 | 1.5 |
| Shakhriyar Mamedyarov | 41.6 | 1.7 |
| Vincent Keymer | 1.8 | 2.8 |
| Daniil Dubov | 0.0 | 3.6 |
Pool C
| Name | Win % | Expected Pool Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Wesley So | 31.3 | 2.1 |
| Maxime Vachier-Lagrave | 31.2 | 2.0 |
| Alexandr Predke | 21.8 | 2.6 |
| Sam Shankland | 15.7 | 2.4 |
Pool D
| Name | Win % | Expected Pool Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Anish Giri | 40.8 | 1.9 |
| Yu Yangyi | 27.6 | 2.2 |
| Nikita Vitiugov | 21.9 | 2.2 |
| Amin Tabatabaei | 9.7 | 2.9 |
Possibilities for Qualification into Candidates Tournament
Overall odds of qualifying for the Candidates Tournament
| Name | Qualify % | Expected GP Points |
|---|---|---|
| Richard Rapport | 98.5 | 20.0 |
| Hikaru Nakamura | 31.7 | 17.2 |
| Leinier Dominguez | 17.6 | 13.8 |
| Anish Giri | 13.7 | 12.4 |
| Maxime Vachier-Lagrave | 12.5 | 11.8 |
| Levon Aronian | 12.0 | 14.5 |
| Wesley So | 7.2 | 8.6 |
| Shakhriyar Mamedyarov | 4.0 | 9.1 |
| Sam Shankland | 0.8 | 7.1 |
| Andrey Esipenko | 0.7 | 5.3 |
| Nikita Vitiugov | 0.6 | 6.6 |
| Alexandr Predke | 0.6 | 5.9 |
| Amin Tabatabaei | 0.0 | 5.0 |
| Yu Yangyi | 0.0 | 4.1 |