More draws, Keymer wins

After yesterday’s round two with eight draws, we saw seven draws today. The decisive result was Vincent Keymer taking down Daniil Dubov with the white pieces. Keymer is still not favored to win his pool given the stiff competition he faces in LDP and Shakh.

Overall, not a lot changes with today’s odds except that I fixed a mistake I made in recording games that made Giri’s odds worse than they actually are.

Nakamura faced a tough battle again today and eeked out the half point, but Stockfish indicated the position was clearly lost at some points so the half point was a good result. I accidentally recorded Hikaru playing today with the white pieces, so I am rerunning the simulations now and will update soon.

Halfway through the pool stages and we will start to see people pressing a bit harder than they otherwise would in an effort to advance and maintain their chances at qualifying for the Candidate’s Tournament.

Nakamura will seek revenge against Aronian tomorrow in what is likely the most critical match of the day.

Odds to Win Leg 3

Name Win % Expected GP Points
Wesley So 20.4 6.4
Levon Aronian 19.2 7.0
Leinier Dominguez 16.3 7.1
Anish Giri 15.4 6.2
Shakhriyar Mamedyarov 5.9 4.2
Maxime Vachier-Lagrave 5.1 2.7
Nikita Vitiugov 3.9 5.2
Yu Yangyi 3.1 3.1
Hikaru Nakamura 2.9 2.2
Andrey Esipenko 2.7 3.3
Sam Shankland 1.6 2.7
Grigoriy Oparin 1.4 2.8
Alexandr Predke 1.2 3.7
Vincent Keymer 0.7 3.4
Daniil Dubov 0.2 0.5
Amin Tabatabaei 0.0 0.7

Leg 3 Pool Odds

Pool A

Name Win % Expected Pool Rank
Levon Aronian 59.8 1.5
Andrey Esipenko 16.2 2.4
Grigoriy Oparin 15.7 2.6
Hikaru Nakamura 8.4 2.9

Pool B

Name Win % Expected Pool Rank
Leinier Dominguez 63.6 1.5
Shakhriyar Mamedyarov 19.0 2.1
Vincent Keymer 16.6 2.3
Daniil Dubov 0.8 3.6

Pool C

Name Win % Expected Pool Rank
Wesley So 52.2 1.7
Alexandr Predke 20.0 2.2
Maxime Vachier-Lagrave 15.7 2.8
Sam Shankland 12.1 2.6

Pool D

Name Win % Expected Pool Rank
Anish Giri 48.2 1.7
Nikita Vitiugov 36.0 1.7
Yu Yangyi 15.6 2.6
Amin Tabatabaei 0.1 3.6

Possibilities for Qualification into Candidates Tournament

Overall odds of qualifying for the Candidates Tournament

Name Qualify % Expected GP Points
Richard Rapport 99.4 20.0
Levon Aronian 32.0 17.0
Leinier Dominguez 17.5 14.1
Anish Giri 15.8 13.2
Wesley So 13.3 10.4
Hikaru Nakamura 10.4 15.2
Maxime Vachier-Lagrave 4.9 9.7
Andrey Esipenko 2.8 7.3
Shakhriyar Mamedyarov 1.3 7.2
Sam Shankland 1.2 6.7
Nikita Vitiugov 0.9 8.2
Daniil Dubov 0.2 3.5
Yu Yangyi 0.1 3.1
Alexandr Predke 0.1 6.7
Grigoriy Oparin 0.0 2.8
Amin Tabatabaei 0.0 3.7
Vincent Keymer 0.0 3.4