What if Andreikin Wins? Berlin is crazy!
Important Second Game in Belgrade
Today we see the final classical chess game in the FIDE Grand Prix Leg 2 in Belgrade, Serbia. Richard Rpaport takes on Dmitry Andreikin with the white pieces and the stakes couldn’t be higher. If Rapport wins, he has a 94% chance to qualify for the candidates. If he loses that number shrivels to just 25%. A draw would send them to tiebreaks.
Chess by the Numbers tweeted about the craziness that would ensue if Andreikin wins - no single player has a greater than 50% chance of qualifying. I decided to explore this topic in more depth when either player wins.
The data below are the result of about 35,000 simulations where Andreikin wins and 65,000 simulations where Rapport wins. The tables show the odds for each pair of players qualifying, and the charts show the odds of each player qualifying given a specific Grand Prix point total. If a player isn’t in the list, they didn’t qualify in any simulations.
The length of the list when Andreikin wins tells a lot by itself, as both Candidate’s Tournament spots would still be wide open.
If Andreikin Wins:
| Qualifiers | Qualify % |
|---|---|
| Hikaru Nakamura & Richárd Rapport | 9.9 |
| Anish Giri & Hikaru Nakamura | 9.2 |
| Anish Giri & Levon Aronian | 6.8 |
| Dmitry Andreikin & Hikaru Nakamura | 6.3 |
| Anish Giri & Dmitry Andreikin | 6.0 |
| Dmitry Andreikin & Levon Aronian | 6.0 |
| Hikaru Nakamura & Levon Aronian | 5.9 |
| Levon Aronian & Richárd Rapport | 5.8 |
| Hikaru Nakamura & Wesley So | 5.7 |
| Dmitry Andreikin & Richárd Rapport | 5.5 |
| Dmitry Andreikin & Wesley So | 4.5 |
| Hikaru Nakamura & Maxime Vachier-Lagrave | 4.3 |
| Levon Aronian & Wesley So | 4.1 |
| Hikaru Nakamura & Leinier Domínguez | 3.7 |
| Dmitry Andreikin & Leinier Domínguez | 3.4 |
| Dmitry Andreikin & Maxime Vachier-Lagrave | 3.3 |
| Levon Aronian & Maxime Vachier-Lagrave | 3.1 |
| Leinier Domínguez & Levon Aronian | 1.3 |
| Anish Giri & Richárd Rapport | 1.0 |
| Richárd Rapport & Wesley So | 0.7 |
| Maxime Vachier-Lagrave & Richárd Rapport | 0.7 |
| Leinier Domínguez & Richárd Rapport | 0.5 |
| Anish Giri & Leinier Domínguez | 0.4 |
| Hikaru Nakamura & Sam Shankland | 0.4 |
| Dmitry Andreikin & Sam Shankland | 0.3 |
| Richárd Rapport & Shakhriyar Mamedyarov | 0.3 |
| Leinier Domínguez & Wesley So | 0.3 |
| Levon Aronian & Sam Shankland | 0.2 |
| Leinier Domínguez & Maxime Vachier-Lagrave | 0.2 |
| Nikita Vitiugov & Richárd Rapport | 0.1 |
| Daniil Dubov & Richárd Rapport | 0.1 |
| Richárd Rapport & Sam Shankland | 0.1 |
| Leinier Domínguez & Sam Shankland | 0.0 |
| Alexandr Predke & Richárd Rapport | 0.0 |
If Rapport Wins:
| Qualifiers | Qualify % |
|---|---|
| Hikaru Nakamura & Richárd Rapport | 29.1 |
| Levon Aronian & Richárd Rapport | 20.8 |
| Anish Giri & Richárd Rapport | 14.0 |
| Dmitry Andreikin & Richárd Rapport | 8.1 |
| Maxime Vachier-Lagrave & Richárd Rapport | 7.8 |
| Leinier Domínguez & Richárd Rapport | 7.5 |
| Richárd Rapport & Wesley So | 5.5 |
| Anish Giri & Hikaru Nakamura | 3.8 |
| Hikaru Nakamura & Maxime Vachier-Lagrave | 1.1 |
| Hikaru Nakamura & Leinier Domínguez | 1.1 |
| Richárd Rapport & Sam Shankland | 0.5 |
| Richárd Rapport & Shakhriyar Mamedyarov | 0.5 |
| Nikita Vitiugov & Richárd Rapport | 0.1 |
| Daniil Dubov & Richárd Rapport | 0.1 |
| Alexandr Predke & Richárd Rapport | 0.0 |
| Richárd Rapport & Yu Yangyi | 0.0 |
| Amin Tabatabaei & Richárd Rapport | 0.0 |
| Grigoriy Oparin & Richárd Rapport | 0.0 |
Note: A pair that shows up in these tables could have qualified in some simulations but rounded to 0.0%.
Andreikin Wins: Qualification into Candidates Tournament
Rapport Wins: Qualification into Candidates Tournament