Giri upset by Andreikin

In what might be one of the most surprising individual game results of the FIDE Grand Prix so far, Andreikin beat Giri in a Rapid game, a result that we should only see about 10% of the time for someone with an 83 point Elo deficit. They drew the other game, so Andreikin advances to face Rapport and Giri is sidelined with a solid, but surely disappointing, seven Grand Prix points.

Belgrage Finals Odds

Name Win % Expected GP Points
Richard Rapport 62.8 11.9
Dmitry Andreikin 37.2 11.1

My model and simulations suggest Rapport is the favorite by quite a margin, but we’ve seen Andreikin overperforming for the last two weeks, and that trend may continue. That said, Rapport has also been playing dominating chess the entire Leg 2, so we should be in for a great matchup.

The odds for qualifying into the Candidate Tournamenet were also shaken up quite a bit. Obviously, Rapport faces an “easier” opponent (on paper) in the final than Giri, so his odds went up close to 70%! Giri’s odds went down significantly, with his diminished chances benefitting Rapport the most, but also bumping up some others. Andreikin doubled his chances of qualifying by winning today, and is up to 18%

Full results below, based on 50,000 simulations.

Possibilities for Qualification into Candidates Tournament

Overall odds of qualifying for the Candidates Tournament

Name Qualify % Expected GP Points
Richard Rapport 68.6 18.9
Hikaru Nakamura 38.7 17.8
Levon Aronian 25.2 15.4
Anish Giri 19.6 13.5
Dmitry Andreikin 18.0 14.6
Maxime Vachier-Lagrave 10.2 12.0
Wesley So 9.3 9.9
Leinier Dominguez 9.0 11.9
Sam Shankland 0.7 6.6
Shakhriyar Mamedyarov 0.4 8.6
Nikita Vitiugov 0.1 6.7
Daniil Dubov 0.1 6.0
Alexandr Predke 0.0 4.9
Yu Yangyi 0.0 3.7
Grigoriy Oparin 0.0 1.7
Vidit Gujrathi 0.0 7.0
Amin Tabatabaei 0.0 4.2
Vladimir Fedoseev 0.0 3.0
Alexander Grischuk 0.0 2.0
Etienne Bacrot 0.0 2.0
Pentala Harikrishna 0.0 2.0
Vincent Keymer 0.0 1.6
Alexei Shirov 0.0 1.0