Rapport advances to finals, Giri and Andreikin to tiebreaks

Both classical games today resulted in a draw.

For Rapport, the draw means he will move on the the final round of the KO and has secured 10 Grand Prix points, further solidifying his chances of qualifying into the Candidates. If he loses in the final, he has a 21% chance and if he wins he has a 95% chance of qualifying.

For Giri and Andreikin, they move to rapid tiebreaks (two games, one with each color). If they are still tied they’ll follow the same format for two blitz games and then move into an armageddon. Giri enjoys a significant Elo advantage of 83 points in Rapid (2744 vs 2661). Given that discrepancy, he is the favorite to win and advance to the finals against Rapport. My simulations say that Giri has a 69% chance of eliminating Andreikin and advancing.

While Giri and Andrekin battle tomorrow, Rapport enjoys a rest day which could give him a slight advantage going into the finals.

If you haven’t already, check out the odds for leg 3 in Berlin.

Based on the results of 50,000 simulations, below are odds for winning in Belgrade and odds for candidate qualification for every player for every possible amount of Grand Prix points they could end on.

Belgrade Odds

Name Win % Expected GP Points
Richard Rapport 52.2 11.6
Anish Giri 36.2 10.2
Dmitry Andreikin 11.6 8.3
Maxime Vachier-Lagrave 0.0 7.0

Possibilities for Qualification into Candidates Tournament

Overall odds of qualifying for the Candidates Tournament

Name Qualify % Expected GP Points
Richard Rapport 59.4 18.6
Hikaru Nakamura 38.5 17.8
Anish Giri 37.8 16.7
Levon Aronian 25.2 15.4
Maxime Vachier-Lagrave 9.6 12.0
Wesley So 9.5 9.9
Leinier Dominguez 9.1 12.0
Dmitry Andreikin 9.1 11.8
Sam Shankland 0.7 6.6
Shakhriyar Mamedyarov 0.7 8.5
Nikita Vitiugov 0.2 6.7
Daniil Dubov 0.1 6.0
Alexandr Predke 0.0 5.0
Amin Tabatabaei 0.0 4.2
Yu Yangyi 0.0 3.7
Grigoriy Oparin 0.0 1.7
Vidit Gujrathi 0.0 7.0
Vladimir Fedoseev 0.0 3.0
Alexander Grischuk 0.0 2.0
Etienne Bacrot 0.0 2.0
Pentala Harikrishna 0.0 2.0
Vincent Keymer 0.0 1.6
Alexei Shirov 0.0 1.0