FIDE Grand Prix Belgrade Knockout and Berlin Leg 3 Pool Odds
Big win for Rapport, Leg 3 pools announced
Today was a big day for the FIDE Grand Prix. The first day of the knockout rounds in Belgrade is in the books, and the pools for leg 3 have been drawn.
Richard Rapport beat MVL with the white pieces, and will only need a draw tomorrow with the black pieces to advance to the final. Anish Giri and Dmitri Andreikin drew their game. Giri, while still the favorite, lost a critical opportunity to take the lead with the white pieces. Now he’ll have to battle with the black pieces tomorrow and hold a draw or better to have chances of advancing. Updated odds for Belgrade are below.
The pool draw results for leg 3 in Berlin were also announced today, and the obvious winner was Anish Giri. He has a 54.5% chance of winning his pool. The pool draw along increased his odds of qualifying to the candidates by a few percentage points. Lucky guy! Let’s see what he does with it, though.
Hikaru Nakamura also saw his candidate qualification odds significantly impaired with Rapport’s win over MVL. He moved from about 50% chances to 40% chances.
Time for some numbers!
There’s a lot of data to peruse below, so take a gander! I’ve got Belgrade winning odds, leg 3 pool odds, leg 3 overall winning chances, Candidate qualification chances for each person, and their odds if they land on various popints.
Belgrade Odds
| Name | Win % | Expected GP Points |
|---|---|---|
| Richard Rapport | 46.2 | 11.0 |
| Anish Giri | 32.4 | 9.8 |
| Dmitry Andreikin | 14.3 | 8.6 |
| Maxime Vachier-Lagrave | 7.1 | 7.6 |
Leg 3 Pool Odds
Pool A
| Name | Win % | Expected Pool Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Levon Aronian | 40.3 | 1.9 |
| Hikaru Nakamura | 33.3 | 2.1 |
| Dmitry Andreikin | 20.0 | 2.4 |
| Grigoriy Oparin | 6.4 | 3.1 |
Pool B
| Name | Win % | Expected Pool Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Shakhriyar Mamedyarov | 42.5 | 1.9 |
| Leinier Dominguez | 35.6 | 2.0 |
| Daniil Dubov | 16.5 | 2.6 |
| Vincent Keymer | 5.5 | 3.1 |
Pool C
| Name | Win % | Expected Pool Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Wesley So | 44.7 | 1.8 |
| Maxime Vachier-Lagrave | 35.3 | 2.0 |
| Sam Shankland | 12.3 | 2.7 |
| Alexandr Predke | 7.7 | 3.0 |
Pool D
| Name | Win % | Expected Pool Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Anish Giri | 54.5 | 1.6 |
| Yu Yangyi | 22.4 | 2.3 |
| Nikita Vitiugov | 20.4 | 2.3 |
| Amin Tabatabaei | 2.7 | 3.3 |
Overall Berlin Results Odds
| Name | Win % | Expected GP Points |
|---|---|---|
| Anish Giri | 16.8 | 6.5 |
| Wesley So | 15.6 | 5.8 |
| Levon Aronian | 12.0 | 5.4 |
| Shakhriyar Mamedyarov | 11.9 | 5.6 |
| Hikaru Nakamura | 11.7 | 4.8 |
| Maxime Vachier-Lagrave | 9.9 | 5.0 |
| Leinier Dominguez | 8.6 | 4.9 |
| Yu Yangyi | 3.5 | 3.7 |
| Dmitry Andreikin | 3.4 | 3.5 |
| Daniil Dubov | 2.4 | 3.0 |
| Nikita Vitiugov | 1.9 | 3.7 |
| Sam Shankland | 1.1 | 2.6 |
| Grigoriy Oparin | 0.6 | 1.7 |
| Alexandr Predke | 0.5 | 1.9 |
| Vincent Keymer | 0.2 | 1.6 |
| Amin Tabatabaei | 0.0 | 1.2 |
Possibilities for Qualification into Candidates Tournament
Overall odds of qualifying for the Candidates Tournament
| Name | Qualify % | Expected GP Points |
|---|---|---|
| Richard Rapport | 52.6 | 18.0 |
| Hikaru Nakamura | 39.6 | 17.8 |
| Anish Giri | 36.5 | 16.4 |
| Levon Aronian | 26.2 | 15.4 |
| Maxime Vachier-Lagrave | 13.4 | 12.6 |
| Dmitry Andreikin | 10.4 | 12.1 |
| Wesley So | 9.9 | 9.8 |
| Leinier Dominguez | 9.3 | 11.9 |
| Shakhriyar Mamedyarov | 1.0 | 8.6 |
| Sam Shankland | 0.7 | 6.6 |
| Daniil Dubov | 0.2 | 6.0 |
| Nikita Vitiugov | 0.2 | 6.7 |
| Alexandr Predke | 0.0 | 4.9 |
| Yu Yangyi | 0.0 | 3.7 |
| Amin Tabatabaei | 0.0 | 4.2 |
| Grigoriy Oparin | 0.0 | 1.7 |
| Vidit Gujrathi | 0.0 | 7.0 |
| Vladimir Fedoseev | 0.0 | 3.0 |
| Alexander Grischuk | 0.0 | 2.0 |
| Etienne Bacrot | 0.0 | 2.0 |
| Pentala Harikrishna | 0.0 | 2.0 |
| Vincent Keymer | 0.0 | 1.6 |
| Alexei Shirov | 0.0 | 1.0 |