How the odds change with each result

This post will be quick. No fancy tables or interactivity - just the cold hard numbers! Check out the bracket I built if you want to see some more scenarios.

I ran 1,000 simulations for each scenario. The numbers should be at most 1-2% off, but I’ll run some more robust simulations once the games are over and we will know for sure!

I think Andreikin has the white pieces against Giri and Rapport has the white pieces against MVL.

If Andreikin beats Giri:
Giri wins semi: 0.221
Andreikin wins semi: 0.779

If they draw:
Giri wins semi: 0.694
Andreikin wins semi: 0.306

If Giri wins:
Giri wins semi: 0.964
Andreikin wins semi: 0.036

If Rapport beats MVL:
Rapport wins semi: 0.855
MVL wins semi: 0.145

If they draw:
Rapport wins semi: 0.432
MVL wins semi: 0.568

If MVL wins:
Rapport wins semi: 0.066
MVL wins semi: 0.934