FIDE Grand Prix Belgrade Knockout Stage Odds
Knockout stage in Belgrade is set, no tiebreaks required
Tomorrow will be a rest day for the four remaining players as everyone cleanly advanced to the knockout stage. On Wednesday, we will see Anish Giri take on Dimitri Andreikin and MVL take on Richard Rapport.
I’m working on getting the odds of each pairing in the semifinals and each potential finals matchup and can share that tomorrow. For now, I have the same style as after previous days: overall odds of winning in Belgrade, expected GP points, and information about likelihood of qualifying for the Candidate’s tournament.
Results from 50,000 simulations below.
Note: This post has been updated to fix a bug where my code was erroneously skipping over the rapid portion of tiebreaks in the knockout rounds. MVL and Rapport are now much closer, as expected. MVL has the slight edge despite a small (live) classical Elo deficit driven buy a large Blitz rating gap (MVL is the world champ!). Giri’s odds also improved over Andreikin after squashing the bug because Giri enjoys a nice rating advantage in rapid Elo. Thanks for bearing with me as I made these fixes!
Belgrade Odds
| Name | Win % | Expected GP Points |
|---|---|---|
| Anish Giri | 36.4 | 10.1 |
| Maxime Vachier-Lagrave | 27.6 | 9.4 |
| Richard Rapport | 25.0 | 9.2 |
| Dmitry Andreikin | 11.1 | 8.3 |
| Sam Shankland | 0.0 | 4.0 |
| Vidit Gujrathi | 0.0 | 4.0 |
| Alexandr Predke | 0.0 | 3.0 |
| Amin Tabatabaei | 0.0 | 3.0 |
| Nikita Vitiugov | 0.0 | 3.0 |
| Shakhriyar Mamedyarov | 0.0 | 3.0 |
| Etienne Bacrot | 0.0 | 2.0 |
| Alexei Shirov | 0.0 | 1.0 |
| Vladimir Fedoseev | 0.0 | 1.0 |
| Alexander Grischuk | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Pentala Harikrishna | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Yu Yangyi | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Possibilities for Qualification into Candidates Tournament
Overall odds of qualifying for the Candidates Tournament
| Name | Qualify % | Expected GP Points |
|---|---|---|
| Hikaru Nakamura | 49.0 | 18.0 |
| Anish Giri | 36.4 | 15.9 |
| Levon Aronian | 29.5 | 15.6 |
| Richard Rapport | 28.9 | 16.2 |
| Maxime Vachier-Lagrave | 20.6 | 14.1 |
| Dmitry Andreikin | 10.9 | 11.4 |
| Wesley So | 9.9 | 9.9 |
| Leinier Dominguez | 8.7 | 11.7 |
| Sam Shankland | 1.9 | 7.0 |
| Daniil Dubov | 1.8 | 6.2 |
| Alexandr Predke | 1.2 | 4.8 |
| Shakhriyar Mamedyarov | 0.8 | 8.7 |
| Amin Tabatabaei | 0.3 | 4.7 |
| Grigoriy Oparin | 0.1 | 1.8 |
| Nikita Vitiugov | 0.1 | 7.1 |
| Vincent Keymer | 0.0 | 1.8 |
| Yu Yangyi | 0.0 | 3.2 |
| Vidit Gujrathi | 0.0 | 7.0 |
| Vladimir Fedoseev | 0.0 | 3.0 |
| Alexander Grischuk | 0.0 | 2.0 |
| Etienne Bacrot | 0.0 | 2.0 |
| Pentala Harikrishna | 0.0 | 2.0 |
| Alexei Shirov | 0.0 | 1.0 |