If it ain’t broke don’t fix it

This page is a bit clunky, but still gives us insight into various scenarios. The results of the pools are starting to shape up, with Rapport and Giri likely to win their pool, but Pool A and D remaining tightly contested. Shakh vs. MVL is a fun game to explore, as are the games of Andreikin and Shankland.

I ran 100,000 simulations for the overall odds and each result you pick is a subset of the 100,000 simulations based on how often that outcome occurred in the simulations.

Scenario Picker:

White Wins Draw Black Wins
Alexander Grischuk Sam Shankland
Dmitry Andreikin Etienne Bacrot
Nikita Vitiugov Anish Giri
Pentala Harikrishna Amin Tabatabaei
Richard Rapport Alexei Shirov
Shakhriyar Mamedyarov Maxime Vachier-Lagrave
Vladimir Fedoseev Vidit Gujrathi
Yu Yangyi Alexandr Predke

White Wins: Alexander Grischuk vs. Sam Shankland

Name Win % Expected GP Points
Anish Giri 36.4 9.8
Richard Rapport 16.9 8.6
Maxime Vachier-Lagrave 16.2 6.3
Dmitry Andreikin 14.8 8.3
Shakhriyar Mamedyarov 11.6 5.1
Yu Yangyi 2.7 3.9
Nikita Vitiugov 0.7 3.4
Vidit Gujrathi 0.4 3.3
Etienne Bacrot 0.2 2.2
Alexander Grischuk 0.0 0.6
Alexandr Predke 0.0 0.4
Alexei Shirov 0.0 1.1
Amin Tabatabaei 0.0 1.0
Pentala Harikrishna 0.0 1.8
Sam Shankland 0.0 3.6
Vladimir Fedoseev 0.0 1.8

Draw: Alexander Grischuk vs. Sam Shankland

Name Win % Expected GP Points
Anish Giri 36.9 9.8
Richard Rapport 18.4 8.8
Maxime Vachier-Lagrave 18.0 6.9
Dmitry Andreikin 11.9 7.3
Shakhriyar Mamedyarov 7.7 4.0
Yu Yangyi 4.3 4.2
Sam Shankland 1.5 4.8
Nikita Vitiugov 1.2 3.7
Etienne Bacrot 0.2 2.3
Alexander Grischuk 0.0 0.0
Alexandr Predke 0.0 0.5
Alexei Shirov 0.0 0.7
Amin Tabatabaei 0.0 0.9
Pentala Harikrishna 0.0 1.7
Vidit Gujrathi 0.0 3.3
Vladimir Fedoseev 0.0 2.0

Black Wins: Alexander Grischuk vs. Sam Shankland

Name Win % Expected GP Points
Anish Giri 40.3 10.1
Richard Rapport 17.7 8.7
Shakhriyar Mamedyarov 16.6 6.1
Maxime Vachier-Lagrave 11.2 5.0
Sam Shankland 6.2 7.2
Yu Yangyi 3.8 4.1
Dmitry Andreikin 3.3 4.3
Nikita Vitiugov 1.1 3.3
Alexander Grischuk 0.0 0.0
Alexandr Predke 0.0 0.7
Alexei Shirov 0.0 0.7
Amin Tabatabaei 0.0 0.3
Pentala Harikrishna 0.0 2.7
Vidit Gujrathi 0.0 3.5
Vladimir Fedoseev 0.0 1.8
Etienne Bacrot 0.0 2.7

White Wins: Dmitry Andreikin vs. Étienne Bacrot

Name Win % Expected GP Points
Anish Giri 35.5 9.7
Richard Rapport 17.6 8.7
Maxime Vachier-Lagrave 15.8 6.3
Dmitry Andreikin 15.7 8.5
Shakhriyar Mamedyarov 10.0 4.8
Yu Yangyi 4.0 4.3
Nikita Vitiugov 0.9 3.5
Vidit Gujrathi 0.3 3.5
Sam Shankland 0.2 4.1
Alexander Grischuk 0.0 0.5
Alexandr Predke 0.0 0.3
Alexei Shirov 0.0 0.8
Amin Tabatabaei 0.0 0.8
Pentala Harikrishna 0.0 1.9
Vladimir Fedoseev 0.0 1.8
Etienne Bacrot 0.0 1.5

Draw: Dmitry Andreikin vs. Étienne Bacrot

Name Win % Expected GP Points
Anish Giri 37.1 9.8
Richard Rapport 17.6 8.7
Maxime Vachier-Lagrave 17.5 6.7
Dmitry Andreikin 11.5 7.4
Shakhriyar Mamedyarov 9.9 4.5
Yu Yangyi 3.3 3.8
Sam Shankland 2.0 4.6
Nikita Vitiugov 0.9 3.6
Vidit Gujrathi 0.1 3.2
Alexander Grischuk 0.0 0.0
Alexandr Predke 0.0 0.7
Alexei Shirov 0.0 1.0
Amin Tabatabaei 0.0 1.1
Pentala Harikrishna 0.0 1.6
Vladimir Fedoseev 0.0 1.9
Etienne Bacrot 0.0 2.4

Black Wins: Dmitry Andreikin vs. Étienne Bacrot

Name Win % Expected GP Points
Anish Giri 44.4 10.5
Richard Rapport 17.8 8.7
Maxime Vachier-Lagrave 15.7 6.2
Shakhriyar Mamedyarov 13.7 5.6
Sam Shankland 3.3 5.3
Yu Yangyi 1.9 3.9
Etienne Bacrot 1.9 6.1
Nikita Vitiugov 1.2 3.5
Alexander Grischuk 0.0 0.0
Alexandr Predke 0.0 0.0
Alexei Shirov 0.0 0.7
Amin Tabatabaei 0.0 0.5
Dmitry Andreikin 0.0 2.3
Pentala Harikrishna 0.0 2.3
Vidit Gujrathi 0.0 3.0
Vladimir Fedoseev 0.0 2.3

White Wins: Nikita Vitiugov vs. Anish Giri

Name Win % Expected GP Points
Anish Giri 33.2 9.2
Richard Rapport 18.5 8.7
Maxime Vachier-Lagrave 17.5 6.6
Dmitry Andreikin 12.0 7.3
Shakhriyar Mamedyarov 9.0 4.3
Yu Yangyi 4.4 4.4
Nikita Vitiugov 3.1 4.8
Sam Shankland 1.7 4.8
Vidit Gujrathi 0.4 3.7
Etienne Bacrot 0.2 2.2
Alexander Grischuk 0.0 0.2
Alexandr Predke 0.0 0.3
Alexei Shirov 0.0 0.6
Amin Tabatabaei 0.0 0.9
Pentala Harikrishna 0.0 1.1
Vladimir Fedoseev 0.0 1.8

Draw: Nikita Vitiugov vs. Anish Giri

Name Win % Expected GP Points
Anish Giri 38.3 10.1
Maxime Vachier-Lagrave 19.9 7.2
Richard Rapport 17.1 8.7
Dmitry Andreikin 13.0 7.6
Shakhriyar Mamedyarov 7.9 4.2
Yu Yangyi 2.7 3.8
Sam Shankland 0.9 4.2
Etienne Bacrot 0.2 2.4
Vidit Gujrathi 0.1 3.0
Alexander Grischuk 0.0 0.3
Alexandr Predke 0.0 0.5
Alexei Shirov 0.0 1.0
Amin Tabatabaei 0.0 0.6
Nikita Vitiugov 0.0 3.4
Pentala Harikrishna 0.0 2.0
Vladimir Fedoseev 0.0 2.0

Black Wins: Nikita Vitiugov vs. Anish Giri

Name Win % Expected GP Points
Anish Giri 39.2 10.2
Richard Rapport 17.5 8.7
Shakhriyar Mamedyarov 17.4 6.4
Dmitry Andreikin 11.8 7.4
Maxime Vachier-Lagrave 7.8 4.6
Yu Yangyi 4.2 4.2
Sam Shankland 1.5 4.6
Etienne Bacrot 0.3 2.1
Vidit Gujrathi 0.2 3.5
Alexander Grischuk 0.0 0.4
Alexandr Predke 0.0 0.5
Alexei Shirov 0.0 0.9
Amin Tabatabaei 0.0 1.6
Nikita Vitiugov 0.0 2.0
Pentala Harikrishna 0.0 2.4
Vladimir Fedoseev 0.0 1.6

White Wins: Pentala Harikrishna vs. Amin Tabatabaei

Name Win % Expected GP Points
Anish Giri 38.0 9.9
Richard Rapport 17.3 8.7
Maxime Vachier-Lagrave 16.8 6.5
Dmitry Andreikin 11.7 7.1
Shakhriyar Mamedyarov 10.1 4.7
Yu Yangyi 3.5 3.9
Sam Shankland 1.3 4.6
Nikita Vitiugov 0.8 3.3
Etienne Bacrot 0.3 2.5
Vidit Gujrathi 0.2 2.9
Alexander Grischuk 0.0 0.2
Alexandr Predke 0.0 0.6
Alexei Shirov 0.0 0.9
Amin Tabatabaei 0.0 0.0
Pentala Harikrishna 0.0 2.9
Vladimir Fedoseev 0.0 2.2

Draw: Pentala Harikrishna vs. Amin Tabatabaei

Name Win % Expected GP Points
Anish Giri 36.4 9.8
Richard Rapport 18.0 8.8
Maxime Vachier-Lagrave 17.5 6.6
Dmitry Andreikin 13.1 7.8
Shakhriyar Mamedyarov 9.6 4.6
Yu Yangyi 3.3 4.1
Sam Shankland 1.4 4.5
Nikita Vitiugov 0.8 3.7
Alexander Grischuk 0.0 0.3
Alexandr Predke 0.0 0.3
Alexei Shirov 0.0 0.8
Amin Tabatabaei 0.0 1.3
Pentala Harikrishna 0.0 1.3
Vidit Gujrathi 0.0 3.4
Vladimir Fedoseev 0.0 1.8
Etienne Bacrot 0.0 1.9

Black Wins: Pentala Harikrishna vs. Amin Tabatabaei

Name Win % Expected GP Points
Anish Giri 35.6 9.6
Richard Rapport 17.5 8.5
Shakhriyar Mamedyarov 13.3 5.3
Maxime Vachier-Lagrave 12.8 5.7
Dmitry Andreikin 12.7 7.6
Yu Yangyi 4.4 4.3
Nikita Vitiugov 1.9 3.8
Vidit Gujrathi 0.8 4.3
Sam Shankland 0.7 3.9
Etienne Bacrot 0.4 2.9
Alexander Grischuk 0.0 0.1
Alexandr Predke 0.0 0.3
Alexei Shirov 0.0 0.9
Amin Tabatabaei 0.0 2.7
Pentala Harikrishna 0.0 0.0
Vladimir Fedoseev 0.0 1.1

White Wins: Richárd Rapport vs. Alexei Shirov

Name Win % Expected GP Points
Anish Giri 36.5 9.7
Richard Rapport 18.3 8.8
Maxime Vachier-Lagrave 16.9 6.5
Dmitry Andreikin 11.6 7.2
Shakhriyar Mamedyarov 10.3 4.7
Yu Yangyi 3.3 4.0
Sam Shankland 1.7 4.8
Nikita Vitiugov 1.3 3.7
Etienne Bacrot 0.2 2.2
Alexander Grischuk 0.0 0.3
Alexandr Predke 0.0 0.4
Alexei Shirov 0.0 0.2
Amin Tabatabaei 0.0 1.0
Pentala Harikrishna 0.0 1.7
Vidit Gujrathi 0.0 3.4
Vladimir Fedoseev 0.0 2.3

Draw: Richárd Rapport vs. Alexei Shirov

Name Win % Expected GP Points
Anish Giri 37.5 9.9
Richard Rapport 17.9 8.8
Maxime Vachier-Lagrave 15.6 6.3
Dmitry Andreikin 13.3 7.8
Shakhriyar Mamedyarov 9.8 4.6
Yu Yangyi 4.3 4.2
Sam Shankland 1.0 4.3
Nikita Vitiugov 0.5 3.4
Etienne Bacrot 0.1 2.3
Alexander Grischuk 0.0 0.2
Alexandr Predke 0.0 0.5
Alexei Shirov 0.0 1.2
Amin Tabatabaei 0.0 0.8
Pentala Harikrishna 0.0 1.9
Vidit Gujrathi 0.0 3.0
Vladimir Fedoseev 0.0 1.7

Black Wins: Richárd Rapport vs. Alexei Shirov

Name Win % Expected GP Points
Anish Giri 37.5 9.9
Maxime Vachier-Lagrave 18.5 6.8
Richard Rapport 13.5 7.9
Dmitry Andreikin 13.3 7.8
Shakhriyar Mamedyarov 12.4 5.0
Vidit Gujrathi 1.9 3.8
Yu Yangyi 1.5 3.8
Nikita Vitiugov 1.0 3.4
Etienne Bacrot 0.5 2.8
Alexander Grischuk 0.0 0.4
Alexandr Predke 0.0 0.3
Alexei Shirov 0.0 2.4
Amin Tabatabaei 0.0 0.7
Pentala Harikrishna 0.0 2.1
Sam Shankland 0.0 3.4
Vladimir Fedoseev 0.0 0.4

White Wins: Shakhriyar Mamedyarov vs. Maxime Vachier-Lagrave

Name Win % Expected GP Points
Anish Giri 37.1 9.9
Shakhriyar Mamedyarov 27.6 8.8
Richard Rapport 17.1 8.6
Dmitry Andreikin 11.9 7.2
Yu Yangyi 3.3 3.7
Sam Shankland 1.8 4.8
Nikita Vitiugov 0.8 3.2
Vidit Gujrathi 0.4 3.2
Etienne Bacrot 0.1 2.1
Alexander Grischuk 0.0 0.4
Alexandr Predke 0.0 0.5
Alexei Shirov 0.0 0.7
Amin Tabatabaei 0.0 1.0
Maxime Vachier-Lagrave 0.0 2.7
Pentala Harikrishna 0.0 2.0
Vladimir Fedoseev 0.0 2.3

Draw: Shakhriyar Mamedyarov vs. Maxime Vachier-Lagrave

Name Win % Expected GP Points
Anish Giri 36.6 9.8
Maxime Vachier-Lagrave 24.4 8.3
Richard Rapport 18.4 8.8
Dmitry Andreikin 14.0 8.1
Yu Yangyi 4.9 4.3
Nikita Vitiugov 0.9 3.7
Sam Shankland 0.7 4.1
Etienne Bacrot 0.1 2.2
Vidit Gujrathi 0.1 3.4
Alexander Grischuk 0.0 0.2
Alexandr Predke 0.0 0.4
Alexei Shirov 0.0 0.9
Amin Tabatabaei 0.0 0.9
Pentala Harikrishna 0.0 1.7
Shakhriyar Mamedyarov 0.0 2.5
Vladimir Fedoseev 0.0 1.7

Black Wins: Shakhriyar Mamedyarov vs. Maxime Vachier-Lagrave

Name Win % Expected GP Points
Anish Giri 38.0 9.9
Maxime Vachier-Lagrave 32.8 9.8
Richard Rapport 16.7 8.7
Dmitry Andreikin 9.0 6.4
Sam Shankland 1.7 4.6
Nikita Vitiugov 1.3 3.9
Etienne Bacrot 0.6 3.1
Alexander Grischuk 0.0 0.1
Alexandr Predke 0.0 0.4
Alexei Shirov 0.0 1.2
Amin Tabatabaei 0.0 0.8
Pentala Harikrishna 0.0 1.7
Shakhriyar Mamedyarov 0.0 1.6
Vidit Gujrathi 0.0 3.3
Vladimir Fedoseev 0.0 1.5
Yu Yangyi 0.0 4.0

White Wins: Vladimir Fedoseev vs. Vidit Gujrathi

Name Win % Expected GP Points
Anish Giri 37.9 9.9
Richard Rapport 17.8 8.8
Shakhriyar Mamedyarov 13.8 5.5
Maxime Vachier-Lagrave 12.6 5.6
Dmitry Andreikin 12.0 7.3
Yu Yangyi 3.7 4.0
Sam Shankland 1.2 4.5
Nikita Vitiugov 0.7 3.4
Etienne Bacrot 0.3 2.4
Alexander Grischuk 0.0 0.3
Alexandr Predke 0.0 0.6
Alexei Shirov 0.0 0.6
Amin Tabatabaei 0.0 0.4
Pentala Harikrishna 0.0 2.4
Vidit Gujrathi 0.0 1.4
Vladimir Fedoseev 0.0 3.9

Draw: Vladimir Fedoseev vs. Vidit Gujrathi

Name Win % Expected GP Points
Anish Giri 37.2 9.8
Richard Rapport 18.1 8.8
Maxime Vachier-Lagrave 17.6 6.6
Dmitry Andreikin 11.7 7.2
Shakhriyar Mamedyarov 8.9 4.5
Yu Yangyi 3.8 4.2
Sam Shankland 1.6 4.6
Nikita Vitiugov 1.0 3.6
Etienne Bacrot 0.2 2.5
Alexander Grischuk 0.0 0.2
Alexandr Predke 0.0 0.3
Alexei Shirov 0.0 0.6
Amin Tabatabaei 0.0 1.1
Pentala Harikrishna 0.0 1.6
Vidit Gujrathi 0.0 3.9
Vladimir Fedoseev 0.0 1.5

Black Wins: Vladimir Fedoseev vs. Vidit Gujrathi

Name Win % Expected GP Points
Anish Giri 35.7 9.7
Maxime Vachier-Lagrave 18.9 7.0
Richard Rapport 16.7 8.5
Dmitry Andreikin 14.2 8.1
Shakhriyar Mamedyarov 9.0 4.3
Yu Yangyi 2.9 3.9
Nikita Vitiugov 1.1 3.6
Vidit Gujrathi 0.8 4.3
Sam Shankland 0.7 4.2
Alexander Grischuk 0.0 0.3
Alexandr Predke 0.0 0.5
Alexei Shirov 0.0 1.6
Amin Tabatabaei 0.0 1.2
Pentala Harikrishna 0.0 1.5
Vladimir Fedoseev 0.0 0.4
Etienne Bacrot 0.0 1.9

White Wins: Yu Yangyi vs. Alexandr Predke

Name Win % Expected GP Points
Anish Giri 37.5 9.8
Richard Rapport 19.4 8.9
Maxime Vachier-Lagrave 15.2 6.1
Dmitry Andreikin 12.3 7.3
Yu Yangyi 7.7 6.0
Shakhriyar Mamedyarov 4.6 3.3
Sam Shankland 1.6 4.7
Nikita Vitiugov 1.4 3.7
Etienne Bacrot 0.2 2.2
Vidit Gujrathi 0.1 3.4
Alexander Grischuk 0.0 0.3
Alexandr Predke 0.0 0.0
Alexei Shirov 0.0 0.7
Amin Tabatabaei 0.0 1.0
Pentala Harikrishna 0.0 1.7
Vladimir Fedoseev 0.0 2.0

Draw: Yu Yangyi vs. Alexandr Predke

Name Win % Expected GP Points
Anish Giri 36.7 9.9
Maxime Vachier-Lagrave 18.1 6.8
Richard Rapport 16.0 8.5
Shakhriyar Mamedyarov 14.6 5.7
Dmitry Andreikin 12.6 7.6
Sam Shankland 0.8 4.2
Nikita Vitiugov 0.5 3.4
Vidit Gujrathi 0.3 3.3
Etienne Bacrot 0.2 2.4
Alexander Grischuk 0.0 0.3
Alexandr Predke 0.0 0.1
Alexei Shirov 0.0 1.1
Amin Tabatabaei 0.0 0.9
Pentala Harikrishna 0.0 1.9
Vladimir Fedoseev 0.0 1.7
Yu Yangyi 0.0 3.1

Black Wins: Yu Yangyi vs. Alexandr Predke

Name Win % Expected GP Points
Anish Giri 36.1 9.8
Shakhriyar Mamedyarov 16.8 6.4
Richard Rapport 16.5 8.7
Maxime Vachier-Lagrave 16.0 6.4
Dmitry Andreikin 12.4 7.8
Sam Shankland 1.4 4.5
Nikita Vitiugov 0.7 3.3
Alexander Grischuk 0.0 0.1
Alexandr Predke 0.0 3.0
Alexei Shirov 0.0 0.8
Amin Tabatabaei 0.0 0.8
Pentala Harikrishna 0.0 2.1
Vidit Gujrathi 0.0 3.1
Vladimir Fedoseev 0.0 2.1
Yu Yangyi 0.0 0.0
Etienne Bacrot 0.0 2.1

Current Belgrade Odds

Name Win % Expected GP Points
Anish Giri 37.0 9.8
Richard Rapport 17.6 8.7
Maxime Vachier-Lagrave 16.5 6.4
Dmitry Andreikin 12.4 7.5
Shakhriyar Mamedyarov 10.3 4.7
Yu Yangyi 3.5 4.0
Sam Shankland 1.2 4.4
Nikita Vitiugov 0.9 3.5
Vidit Gujrathi 0.2 3.3
Etienne Bacrot 0.2 2.3
Alexander Grischuk 0.0 0.3
Alexandr Predke 0.0 0.4
Alexei Shirov 0.0 0.9
Amin Tabatabaei 0.0 0.9
Pentala Harikrishna 0.0 1.8
Vladimir Fedoseev 0.0 1.9