FIDE Grand Prix Belgrade Day 4 Updates
Draws, draws everywhere. Except for MVL!
Maxime Vachier-Lagrave was today’s big winner. He beat Alexandr Predke with the black pieces which was the first decisive game in Pool D and enough to give him a 0.5 point lead over Shakhriyar Mamedyarov and Yu Yangi. Anish Giri maintains his position as favorite to win the tournament, with a full one point lead in his pool. With only two rounds left, he is looking very likely to score 7 GP points for winning his pool and advance to the knockout stage.
Action takes a break tomorrow before th players return on Sunday for Round 5 of 6 in the round robin pool stage. Monday’s game with Mamedyarov vs. MVL is likely to be critical, assuming Sunday sees two draws in the pool, as an MVL draw or win would secure him the pool, but Mamedyarov will wield the white pieces and need to go for a win. If it’s anything like their first game in the round robin, it will surely be a sharp and intense game.
Results of 200,000 simulations below.
Belgrade Odds
| Name | Win % | Expected GP Points |
|---|---|---|
| Anish Giri | 36.8 | 9.5 |
| Maxime Vachier-Lagrave | 23.8 | 7.7 |
| Richard Rapport | 9.9 | 6.2 |
| Dmitry Andreikin | 8.3 | 6.1 |
| Shakhriyar Mamedyarov | 6.8 | 4.0 |
| Vidit Gujrathi | 4.4 | 5.1 |
| Yu Yangyi | 3.2 | 3.3 |
| Sam Shankland | 3.1 | 5.0 |
| Nikita Vitiugov | 2.1 | 3.8 |
| Vladimir Fedoseev | 1.1 | 3.0 |
| Etienne Bacrot | 0.5 | 2.8 |
| Pentala Harikrishna | 0.1 | 1.6 |
| Alexandr Predke | 0.0 | 0.9 |
| Amin Tabatabaei | 0.0 | 1.2 |
| Alexander Grischuk | 0.0 | 0.5 |
| Alexei Shirov | 0.0 | 0.3 |
Possibilities for Qualification into Candidates Tournament
Overall odds of qualifying for the Candidates Tournament
| Name | Qualify % | Expected GP Points |
|---|---|---|
| Hikaru Nakamura | 49.8 | 17.9 |
| Anish Giri | 37.0 | 15.3 |
| Levon Aronian | 31.0 | 15.7 |
| Maxime Vachier-Lagrave | 20.0 | 12.5 |
| Richard Rapport | 12.5 | 13.2 |
| Leinier Dominguez | 9.1 | 11.6 |
| Shakhriyar Mamedyarov | 9.0 | 9.8 |
| Wesley So | 8.5 | 9.8 |
| Dmitry Andreikin | 8.0 | 9.2 |
| Yu Yangyi | 4.0 | 6.5 |
| Sam Shankland | 4.0 | 7.9 |
| Nikita Vitiugov | 2.6 | 8.0 |
| Daniil Dubov | 2.3 | 6.2 |
| Vidit Gujrathi | 1.1 | 8.1 |
| Alexandr Predke | 0.6 | 2.7 |
| Amin Tabatabaei | 0.3 | 2.9 |
| Vladimir Fedoseev | 0.2 | 5.0 |
| Grigoriy Oparin | 0.1 | 1.8 |
| Vincent Keymer | 0.1 | 1.7 |
| Pentala Harikrishna | 0.0 | 3.6 |
| Etienne Bacrot | 0.0 | 2.8 |
| Alexei Shirov | 0.0 | 0.3 |
| Alexander Grischuk | 0.0 | 2.5 |