Rapport makes a comeback

Two players won with the white pieces today: Rapport (beat Vidit) and Fedoseev (beat Shirov). That moves Rapport into a tie for first place in Pool C, which was previosuly dominated by Vidit Gujrathi wha had two wins in two games. The win from Fedoseev, also in Pool C, keeps him just 0.5 points behind the two leaders. The rest of today’s games ended in a draw which helps solidify Giri’s position as the likely winner of Pool B, and moved some other odds around slightly.

Every game in Pool D contues to be drawn, with all four players on 1.5 points. MVL and Shakh are still the favorites. Shakh’s draw with the white pieces while MVL drew with the black pieces represents a missed opportunity for Shakh to jump ahead in Pool D, so you’ll notices MVL’s odds have jumped up a bit while Shakh’s have decreased.

The results of 50,000 simulations are below.

Belgrade Odds

Name Win % Expected GP Points
Anish Giri 34.7 9.3
Shakhriyar Mamedyarov 17.3 6.4
Richard Rapport 12.1 6.6
Maxime Vachier-Lagrave 9.8 4.2
Dmitry Andreikin 7.8 5.6
Vidit Gujrathi 4.2 4.9
Sam Shankland 3.8 5.5
Yu Yangyi 3.5 2.7
Nikita Vitiugov 3.0 4.0
Alexander Grischuk 1.3 1.0
Vladimir Fedoseev 1.0 2.8
Alexandr Predke 0.9 2.4
Etienne Bacrot 0.3 2.3
Pentala Harikrishna 0.1 1.9
Alexei Shirov 0.0 0.5
Amin Tabatabaei 0.0 0.9

Possibilities for Qualification into Candidates Tournament

Overall odds of qualifying for the Candidates Tournament

Name Qualify % Expected GP Points
Hikaru Nakamura 48.7 17.9
Anish Giri 35.9 15.1
Levon Aronian 28.2 15.7
Shakhriyar Mamedyarov 20.2 12.2
Richard Rapport 15.5 13.6
Leinier Dominguez 10.0 11.6
Maxime Vachier-Lagrave 9.0 9.0
Wesley So 7.8 9.8
Dmitry Andreikin 7.5 8.8
Sam Shankland 4.6 8.4
Nikita Vitiugov 3.7 8.2
Yu Yangyi 3.5 5.9
Daniil Dubov 2.0 6.2
Alexandr Predke 1.4 4.2
Vidit Gujrathi 1.2 7.9
Vladimir Fedoseev 0.2 4.8
Amin Tabatabaei 0.2 2.6
Alexander Grischuk 0.2 3.0
Grigoriy Oparin 0.1 1.8
Vincent Keymer 0.0 1.7
Pentala Harikrishna 0.0 3.9
Etienne Bacrot 0.0 2.3
Alexei Shirov 0.0 0.5