FIDE Grand Prix Belgrade Day 3 Updates
Rapport makes a comeback
Two players won with the white pieces today: Rapport (beat Vidit) and Fedoseev (beat Shirov). That moves Rapport into a tie for first place in Pool C, which was previosuly dominated by Vidit Gujrathi wha had two wins in two games. The win from Fedoseev, also in Pool C, keeps him just 0.5 points behind the two leaders. The rest of today’s games ended in a draw which helps solidify Giri’s position as the likely winner of Pool B, and moved some other odds around slightly.
Every game in Pool D contues to be drawn, with all four players on 1.5 points. MVL and Shakh are still the favorites. Shakh’s draw with the white pieces while MVL drew with the black pieces represents a missed opportunity for Shakh to jump ahead in Pool D, so you’ll notices MVL’s odds have jumped up a bit while Shakh’s have decreased.
The results of 50,000 simulations are below.
Belgrade Odds
Name | Win % | Expected GP Points |
---|---|---|
Anish Giri | 34.7 | 9.3 |
Shakhriyar Mamedyarov | 17.3 | 6.4 |
Richard Rapport | 12.1 | 6.6 |
Maxime Vachier-Lagrave | 9.8 | 4.2 |
Dmitry Andreikin | 7.8 | 5.6 |
Vidit Gujrathi | 4.2 | 4.9 |
Sam Shankland | 3.8 | 5.5 |
Yu Yangyi | 3.5 | 2.7 |
Nikita Vitiugov | 3.0 | 4.0 |
Alexander Grischuk | 1.3 | 1.0 |
Vladimir Fedoseev | 1.0 | 2.8 |
Alexandr Predke | 0.9 | 2.4 |
Etienne Bacrot | 0.3 | 2.3 |
Pentala Harikrishna | 0.1 | 1.9 |
Alexei Shirov | 0.0 | 0.5 |
Amin Tabatabaei | 0.0 | 0.9 |
Possibilities for Qualification into Candidates Tournament
Overall odds of qualifying for the Candidates Tournament
Name | Qualify % | Expected GP Points |
---|---|---|
Hikaru Nakamura | 48.7 | 17.9 |
Anish Giri | 35.9 | 15.1 |
Levon Aronian | 28.2 | 15.7 |
Shakhriyar Mamedyarov | 20.2 | 12.2 |
Richard Rapport | 15.5 | 13.6 |
Leinier Dominguez | 10.0 | 11.6 |
Maxime Vachier-Lagrave | 9.0 | 9.0 |
Wesley So | 7.8 | 9.8 |
Dmitry Andreikin | 7.5 | 8.8 |
Sam Shankland | 4.6 | 8.4 |
Nikita Vitiugov | 3.7 | 8.2 |
Yu Yangyi | 3.5 | 5.9 |
Daniil Dubov | 2.0 | 6.2 |
Alexandr Predke | 1.4 | 4.2 |
Vidit Gujrathi | 1.2 | 7.9 |
Vladimir Fedoseev | 0.2 | 4.8 |
Amin Tabatabaei | 0.2 | 2.6 |
Alexander Grischuk | 0.2 | 3.0 |
Grigoriy Oparin | 0.1 | 1.8 |
Vincent Keymer | 0.0 | 1.7 |
Pentala Harikrishna | 0.0 | 3.9 |
Etienne Bacrot | 0.0 | 2.3 |
Alexei Shirov | 0.0 | 0.5 |