Day 1 is in the books, who are the favorites now?

The first day of the second leg of FIDE Grand Prix 2022 saw several decisive games, with Anish Giri, Vidit Gujrathi scoring wins with the white pieces, and Nikita Vitiugov and Alexandr Predke scoring wins with the black pieces.

With Anish Giri’s win today, he is now the favorite with a 24.6% chance to win, up from 16.8% before the tournament started. The updated probabilities for Belgrade are below, and full Grand Prix series simulations provided underneath as well for insight into Candidate’s Tournament qualification odds.

Belgrade Odds

Name Win % Expected GP Points
Anish Giri 24.1 7.4
Shakhriyar Mamedyarov 15.1 5.6
Dmitry Andreikin 11.1 6.1
Maxime Vachier-Lagrave 10.0 4.2
Richard Rapport 9.2 5.3
Alexander Grischuk 6.9 4.1
Nikita Vitiugov 6.6 5.4
Vidit Gujrathi 5.3 4.7
Yu Yangyi 4.6 2.9
Vladimir Fedoseev 2.5 3.0
Sam Shankland 1.7 3.2
Alexandr Predke 1.5 3.0
Alexei Shirov 0.5 1.7
Etienne Bacrot 0.4 1.6
Pentala Harikrishna 0.4 1.9
Amin Tabatabae 0.0 1.0

Possibilities for Qualification into Candidates Tournament

Overall odds of qualifying for the Candidates Tournament

Name Qualify % Expected GP Points
Hikaru Nakamura 51.0 17.9
Levon Aronian 31.2 15.7
Anish Giri 27.3 13.2
Shakhriyar Mamedyarov 18.0 11.3
Richard Rapport 12.2 12.3
Leinier Dominguez 10.2 11.6
Maxime Vachier-Lagrave 9.7 9.0
Dmitry Andreikin 9.3 9.2
Wesley So 8.8 9.8
Nikita Vitiugov 7.2 9.5
Yu Yangyi 4.4 6.1
Daniil Dubov 2.3 6.2
Sam Shankland 2.3 6.1
Alexandr Predke 1.8 4.8
Vidit Gujrathi 1.6 7.7
Alexander Grischuk 1.5 6.1
Vladimir Fedoseev 0.6 5.0
Amin Tabatabae 0.2 2.7
Grigoriy Oparin 0.1 1.8
Pentala Harikrishna 0.1 3.9
Vincent Keymer 0.1 1.7
Alexei Shirov 0.0 1.7
Etienne Bacrot 0.0 1.6